eMarketer forecast: After Prime Day, how to plan for the holiday season?

It is learned that recently, eMarketer released a forecast report on sales trends for this year's holiday season, including holiday season sales growth, which channels will play a role, and which important trends brands and sellers need to pay attention to in an economic downturn.

Prediction 1: U.S. holiday sales growth in 2023 will be the same as last year

The report predicts that total U.S. retail sales will grow 4.5% to $1.328 trillion during this holiday season, similar to last year's 4.8% increase. E-commerce sales are expected to grow 11.9%, while physical store sales will return to pre-epidemic levels, with year-on-year growth expected to be only 2.8%.

Key trends to watch:

1. Deep discounts remain an important driving force for e-commerce

In 2022, U.S. holiday season e-commerce sales reached a record high due to inventory clearance, with particularly strong sales of toys, electronics and computers. This holiday season, discounts will once again be the biggest driver of e-commerce sales growth.

2. Physical retail will return to normal

The epidemic just ended in 2021, and offline physical retail in the United States saw huge growth, but now, physical retail is returning to normal. For brands with physical store layouts, adding flexible payment and pickup options will help improve the shopping fluency of buyers and create a better shopping experience.

3. Holiday shopping will last longer

Last year, retailers started launching holiday shopping activities in October, and this trend is expected to continue this year. Experts predict that starting holiday shopping early will become the new normal in the future, and the earlier brands and merchants plan, the more helpful it will be for later growth.

Prediction 2: The gap between global e-commerce growth and retail sales growth is narrowing

The report predicts that for most of the past, global e-commerce growth has far exceeded overall retail growth, but the rapid growth of e-commerce sales has declined in 2021 and 2022. In the future, e-commerce sales growth will continue to be higher than physical store and overall retail growth, but the gap will narrow further.

Key trends to watch:

1. E-commerce growth rates will normalize

The report predicts that e-commerce sales growth in all regions of the world will be below 20% this year. Although e-commerce growth in North America, Asia Pacific and Western Europe is expected to accelerate, it is still in stark contrast to the rapid growth in the past few years.

2. E-commerce growth will exceed that of physical stores

The report predicts that e-commerce will continue to grow faster than physical stores, but the gap will not be too large. In the future, the growth gap between e-commerce sales and overall retail sales will remain within 5%. Digital channels are also playing an increasingly important role in consumers' purchasing paths.

Prediction 3: Holiday shopping channels will become more diverse

According to the report, the number of digital consumers worldwide is expected to grow by 3.1% to 2.89 billion in 2023, equivalent to 36% of the world's total population. At the same time, shopping channels are becoming more and more diverse, and social e-commerce, mobile e-commerce and live streaming e-commerce are penetrating into consumers' online shopping channels.

Key trends to watch:

1. E-commerce and social platforms compete for search traffic

According to the report, retailers such as Amazon and Walmart are learning from social media platforms and constantly improving their applications and websites to make it easier for buyers to search and discover products. Data shows that young consumers are increasingly starting their shopping searches through social media rather than search engines.

2. US mobile e-commerce will grow during the holiday season

According to Adobe Analytics, mobile e-commerce sales accounted for 51% of the increase in total e-commerce sales during the Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday period last year. It is expected that mobile e-commerce in the United States will achieve double-digit growth during this holiday season, reaching US$129.24 billion.

3. Live shopping is gaining more and more attention

The report predicts that live e-commerce is gaining more and more attention in the U.S. According to data from Insider Intelligence and Bizrate Insights, although only 19% of consumers shop through live broadcasts, more and more platforms are building live e-commerce functions.

Prediction 4: Highlight personalized experience and preferential prices

The global economic situation remains challenging, so brands must find ways to differentiate themselves from their competitors. The two best ways to do this are to offer the best price or to provide products that customers want.

Key trends to watch:

1. Early promotions are just as important as last-minute promotions

The report noted that while the earlier the better for early promotions, some consumers may not look for promotional items until the last minute, so it is recommended that merchants keep their discounts until the very end of the holiday season.

2. Value is more than the lowest price

When balancing deep discounts with the bottom line, brands can do so by offering customers additional perks like free shipping and returns, fun product bundles, or a frictionless checkout experience.

3. Use customer data to improve personalization

Whether through first-party data or third-party data collaboration, brands need to use the customer information they have to provide more relevant product information and a more personalized user experience. Loyalty programs can provide brands with rich consumer search and purchase information.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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