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▶ Video account attention cross-border navigation Yesterday, the Russia-Ukraine war officially broke out, attracting the attention of people all over the world and also causing a stir in the cross-border circle.
Regarding the continued escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, cross-border sellers not only feel "Ukrainian malice", but are also very concerned about the impact it will have on cross-border e-commerce. The contemporary international community has become a "community with a shared future" where all countries share weal and woe. Faced with the complex situation of the world economy and global issues, no country can remain immune. Therefore, the continued escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably have a significant impact on the cross-border e-commerce market. Here, we will analyze them one by one for cross-border sellers in the following article. Energy prices are soaring and freight rates are skyrocketing again! It is learned that when the war just broke out yesterday, a seller mentioned: I feel that this war has given cross-border logistics another excuse to increase prices... ▲ The picture comes from Weibo The seller's concerns about this matter are not groundless. From 2021 to the present, the logistics costs of cross-border sellers have risen repeatedly. Data shows that compared with January 2021, the cost of shipping increased by 29% in January 2022. Affected by the outbreak of the epidemic, a large number of cargo ships blocking ports, container pile-ups, and the long-term unloading, some sellers have abandoned sea transportation and chosen air transportation. However, the supply chain disruption problem has not been solved, some flights have been temporarily canceled due to the epidemic, and the recent shipment of test kits has occupied most of the market space, resulting in frequent increases in air freight prices. Russia, which is participating in the war this time, is not only the second largest crude oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, but also the world's largest natural gas producer, known as the "world's gas station." Prior to this, the escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine in recent days has caused the prices of natural gas, crude oil and other energy sources to continue to rise. ▲ The picture comes from the Internet As of February 24, the international benchmark Brent crude oil finally closed at US$96.84 per barrel. On the fifth working day of the domestic oil price cycle statistics, the crude oil change rate was 1.89%, a cumulative increase of 80 yuan/ton, and an increase of 0.06-0.07 yuan/liter after conversion. Based on this, it is not difficult to predict that as the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalates, rising energy prices will inevitably cause logistics costs to soar, and cross-border sellers must be mentally prepared for their profits to shrink further. Logistics and transportation are blocked, and cross-border trade between Russia and Ukraine is interrupted! It is learned that on February 24, Russia announced the suspension of commercial ship traffic in the Sea of Azov, and the reopening date will be announced separately. It is learned that the Sea of Azov is the "high seas" of Russia and Ukraine, with a large amount of cargo and passenger traffic. Both countries have ports in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine's main port is Mariupol, while Russia controls the entrance to the Kerch Strait. The Kerch Strait is an important channel connecting Russia's inland rivers and sea shipping (7,000 ships pass through this strait every year), and it is also an important channel for Russia to go south to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. If the Azov Sea is suspended for a long time and its major ports are forced to stop operations, it will most likely have a significant impact on the global supply chain, prolong congestion, and keep freight rates high or even increase further. The situation is not optimistic. In addition, air logistics between Russia and Ukraine will also be restricted. It is learned that Russia has announced the closure of its civil aviation airspace on its western border with Ukraine and Belarus, and major cities in southern Russia have begun to implement air traffic control. Russia's largest delivery service provider said that the delivery time of packages in southern Russia and all over Russia may increase, and package delivery may be delayed by about 2-3 days. In this regard, some sellers have previously stated that after the Russia-Ukraine war officially breaks out, some cross-border logistics routes entering Europe through Ukraine will inevitably be affected. ▲ The picture comes from Weibo Fortunately, the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine is not expected to have a significant impact on China-Europe routes. There are currently two main routes for China-Europe trains to enter Europe: one is the Northern European route, and the other is the Southern European route. Among them, Ukraine is only a small branch line on the Northern European route, and will not have a big impact on the main line of China-Europe trains. It is learned that the main channel of the China-Europe freight train, passing through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus, is operating normally. Sellers who are worried about the China-Europe route can breathe a sigh of relief. The US dollar exchange rate plummeted, and cross-border sellers were worried! It is learned that as of February 23, both the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar hit new highs. Among them, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a high of 6.30805 during the session, a new high since May 2018. In response to this, some sellers said that cross-border e-commerce was already a bit miserable, and the exchange rate of 6.3 made it even worse. ▲ The picture comes from Weibo There are also sellers who complained in the seller communication group that the biggest casualties of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are actually their own positions. ▲ The picture comes from the seller communication group For cross-border sellers, it was truly unexpected to encounter such a disaster at the beginning of 2022. As the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalates, logistics costs rise, transportation is obstructed, and the US dollar exchange rate continues to strengthen, the trend of cross-border sellers' trade profits being further reduced has become "force majeure." Sellers should also be reminded that it is unpredictable how long the war between Russia and Ukraine will last. If the confrontation continues, further sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States may be inevitable, and the situation for sellers in related cross-border markets may become even more grim. In response to this, a group chat [Cross-border version of Wuxin Work Group] was created.
Welcome all cross-border sellers to scan the QR code to join the group and discuss related topics~
▲ Scan the QR code to enter the [cross-border version of Wuxin work group]
Hopefully, when spring comes and the snow melts, the situation between Russia and Ukraine will be eased. The fate of the global economy is closely linked. Only in a peaceful and prosperous era with love and affection can cross-border e-commerce continue to flourish. |
