On Monday, the 29th, I updated the progress of the $300 billion tariff. The article mentioned that the two sides will restart trade negotiations on the 30th and 31st. There are still considerable unstable factors in this negotiation, and the United States may still threaten us with $300 billion in tariffs again. Unexpectedly, Monday's prediction came true. On the afternoon of August 1st, US time, after the end of the twelfth round of trade consultations between the two sides, Trump announced on Twitter that the previously announced list of $300 billion in additional tariffs would be implemented on September 1st. The 300 billion list is really here I have mentioned many times before how terrifying this 300 billion list is and how wide its scope is, but I still want to talk about it for some new fans who have not read our previous articles. In the list of products that have been subject to tariffs , only a very small number of us Amazon sellers are actually affected, because most of the products in the previous list are semi-processed products or even raw materials. Most of the 300 billion list this time are daily consumer goods, which means it covers almost all categories that Amazon sellers are involved in! I will post a screenshot of the previous list for everyone to feel. Clothing, headphones, glasses, tablecloths and other daily necessities are all included in the 300 billion list of taxes this time (you can scan the code at the end of the article to get the detailed list ). Combined with the list of products already subject to tariffs, the United States will impose tariffs on a total of $524.9 billion worth of products after September , which already accounts for 97% of the total value of goods imported from China in 2018. The destructive power of this tax increase can be imagined. Almost all products sold to the United States will be affected. Why did the United States suddenly tear its face Let’s first understand another major event, which happened one after the other with Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs. Although the impact on our sellers is far less than the tax increase, it has a far-reaching impact on the United States and may even be one of the indirect reasons for the tax increase. The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on July 31 local time. This is the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve since 2008. The last rate cut stimulated the U.S. real economy and allowed the United States to successfully emerge from the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. The Federal Reserve also started a new round of interest rate hikes in 2015 after the economic recovery. Unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again when this rate hike cycle was far from over. In theory, the Fed's interest rate cut can effectively stimulate the economy and drive up U.S. stocks. However, after a brief rise, U.S. stocks plummeted, which also led to a surge in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. ▲After the opening, the US stock market rose and then fell by more than 600 points ▲The exchange rate against the RMB has skyrocketed, with the highest point reaching 6.95 Although the Fed's operation has little to do with us other than affecting the exchange rate (quickly withdraw your money), it is undoubtedly a tainted operation by the Trump administration during its tenure. The purpose of the Fed's operation was to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the reality slapped them in the face. In the previous article, when we introduced Trump’s recent opinion polls, we also mentioned that Trump’s public opinion on ethnicity, border and health care issues is all negative, and he only received approval from the majority of voters on the economy. Therefore, if Trump wants to win the US presidential election next year, he must hold the economic trump card. However, the interest rate cut on the 31st was a very ugly operation. Although the stimulating economic effect of the interest rate cut may take some time to show up, the current economic downturn may cause Trump to lose this only trump card and lose next year's election. Therefore, in a hurry, Trump wants to win more opportunities in the trade friction with China to make up for the loss of reputation caused by the interest rate cut. So he puts pressure on us with the 300 billion list, hoping to win more favorable conditions for the United States in the negotiations. Some predictions and coping strategies for the future Because the next high-level consultation between the two sides will be in September, it will be too late to prevent the current tariff increase , so the imposition of a 10% tariff on all products on the 300 billion list is a foregone conclusion. But what Trump is best at is going back on his words. He just said that if Iran dares to attack the United States, it will be the end of Iran. Later, Iran shot down a US Global Hawk drone worth hundreds of millions of dollars without saying a word. As a result, Trump found an excuse for Iran. "Fortunately, there was no one on the plane, otherwise the situation would be very different." Trump is absolutely unequivocal in going back on his word and slapping himself in the face. So if something unexpected happens, and Trump wants to stop the tax increase, he can just find a reason (anyone can be president). Because it is difficult to predict, I still recommend that you prepare for the worst case scenario. Slowly raise the price while retaining the shopping cart, or cancel some promotions to preserve profit margins. Because the additional tax is a tariff , if it is not inspected during customs clearance, it can still be avoided . However, since Trump's tariff is a punitive tariff , the probability of inspection will surely increase significantly after implementation. You can also ship in smaller batches to increase the chances of escaping inspection. Of course, the premise is that the freight forwarder is willing, and the cost must be calculated. If the cost of batches exceeds the tariff , then it is not necessary. In the long run, trade friction is not in the interests of both parties, so it will not be the norm. There will always be an end, and our attitude will remain unchanged before that. We don't want to fight But not afraid of fighting Have to fight when necessary What sellers need to do now is to check whether their products are on the 300 billion list. If they are, they must make preparations for a long-term battle in time to let Trump see the power of our unity! If you want a specific list, please scan the QR code below to get the detailed list from me! ! PS. If you want to join the seller discussion group, you can also privately chat with me and ask me to add you to the group. I will also share the latest news on tariffs with friends in the group as soon as possible~ Alice's little clone | Cross-border Business School For the highlights of the past, please click the link below to review The government has issued a ban! Amazon will be forced to cancel this feature Anaconda is back! This time, Amazon sellers join forces to defeat it! Will the store be dead if triggered? Amazon adopts a new review mechanism! Click to like and share your experience▼ |
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