Italy "closes the country", people flee and riot, U.S. stocks circuit breaker, plummet 3 trillion, how far is the financial crisis from us?

"The new coronavirus is currently spreading to more than 100 countries around the world, with the number of cases exceeding 100,000. The threat of a global pandemic of the new coronavirus has become a reality!" said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization, in a telephone conference at the Geneva headquarters on the 9th!

Faced with the increasingly serious epidemic situation, more and more countries have strengthened their response measures! However, at this stage, the epidemic has not been significantly contained, but has had a more serious impact on the world economy!

On the night of the 9th local time, Italian Prime Minister Conte announced that due to the severe COVID-19 epidemic, emergency control measures on the movement of people will be expanded to the whole of Italy.

Starting from the 10th, Italy's 60 million people are prohibited from moving across regions unless it is necessary for work or health. Schools across Italy will continue to be closed until April 3, and sports events and activities will also be suspended.

According to statistics, as of 8:00 on March 10, Italy had a total of 9,172 confirmed cases of COVID-19, 1,797 newly confirmed cases, and 463 deaths. Italy is probably the first country other than China to have more than 10,000 confirmed cases!

Just before the government announced the decree, the Italian media had already leaked the news of the "city lockdown", causing panic among a large number of people!

People in some areas flocked to train stations the night before, and hurriedly "fled" to the south of the country and neighboring countries such as Switzerland, France, and Germany before the lockdown took effect at midnight. This caused a lot of chaos, and some fleeing people complained that they were "like refugees."

There may already be infected people among these people. Crowded spaces like trains and the outflow of people are counterproductive to epidemic prevention work. These people may even cause the epidemic to spread significantly to other countries!

Chinese students are also affected. As various countries have suspended flights to and from Italy and Italy has implemented martial law, a large number of Chinese compatriots and students who were preparing to evacuate are no longer able to leave the country.

According to the Italian newspaper "Chinatown", due to the martial law on March 9, a large number of Chinese citizens were denied exit by Italian customs after receiving their boarding passes. Only their luggage was successfully boarded. At least dozens of overseas Chinese and international students were trapped at the airport.

At present, the Chinese Embassy in Italy has issued a warning, asking Chinese citizens in Italy to cooperate with the martial law as required by the Italian government and wait for follow-up news at home.

The leak also caused serious confrontation between the Italian government and the media. Italian Prime Minister Conte severely criticized the media's behavior of leaking information and causing panic as "unacceptable."

In addition, riots broke out in several prisons in Italy to protest against the Italian government's epidemic prevention measures. The riots resulted in 20 prisoners escaping and 7 prisoners dying .

On the morning of the 9th, a total of 50 prisoners escaped from Foggia Prison in southern Italy during a riot. The police successfully prevented 30 of them from escaping, and another 20 are still at large.

At the same time, fires broke out in two prisons in Rome and one in Prato province due to prisoner riots. Currently, prison riots across Italy have killed seven prisoners, some of whom died from overdoses of psychotropic drugs and some from suffocation due to smoke from the fires.

Italy is an important provider of the global industrial chain. If the domestic epidemic continues to expand, the global industrial chain will be hit. If Italy's economic development is frustrated, debt will ferment and trigger financial turmoil. The European sovereign debt crisis 10 years ago may be repeated . "

At the same time, the economies of countries such as France have just improved, but they are afraid of a sharp decline in their economies and dare not take measures such as city lockdowns. The problem is that if the epidemic spreads, the consequences will be even more terrible. If people panic at that time, it will lead to more serious economic consequences.

Due to the trade conflict between the United States and Europe in 2019, the EU economy was already weak. In 2020, this conflict has not disappeared: in addition to the pending lawsuit between Airbus and Boeing, there are also disputes between the United States and Europe over "digital service tax" and other issues... The EU economy may get out of control at any time, and the EU economic recession is bound to impact China-EU trade...

During the epidemic, the economic situation in Europe is not only bad, the United States is even worse!

Last night, the U.S. stock market opened with a sharp drop, triggering a rare circuit breaker! The Dow fell more than 2,000 points, and the S&P 500 fell 7% during the day, triggering the first level of the circuit breaker mechanism! The New York Stock Exchange announced a 15-minute trading suspension due to the sharp drop. In the U.S. stock market over the past 30 years, the circuit breaker has only been triggered once before: October 27, 1997.

On March 9, local time, the U.S. stock market was brutally slaughtered on Monday, with all three major stock indexes falling by more than 7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 2,000 points in one day. The S&P 500 fell by 7%, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism. All three major U.S. stock indexes were suspended for 15 minutes! The Nasdaq index fell by 7.2%.

U.S. tech stocks plunged at the opening, with Apple falling nearly 9%, Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and others falling nearly 7%. Based on the total market value of U.S. stocks of $44 trillion and an overall decline of 7% on the previous trading day, the market value of U.S. stocks evaporated by $3 trillion at the opening, equivalent to about RMB 21 trillion.

The reason for the sharp drop in US stocks this time is the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia! As the talks between Russia and OPEC collapsed, Saudi Arabia planned to significantly reduce the price of crude oil sales and significantly increase oil production, launching an all-out oil war. This move by Saudi Arabia caused the oil price to plummet by more than 30%.

The reason why Saudi Arabia and Euros dare to start a war over oil is because they both have something to rely on! As the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia has extremely low oil extraction costs and is not afraid of oil price wars; and Russia has long-term strategic cooperation with China on oil, so it is also fearless!

However, the United States, which had just transformed from an oil importing country to an oil exporting country, could not afford the oil war. Investors fell into panic, leading to a stock market crash!

In addition to the sharp drop in US stocks, other major stock markets around the world also suffered a sharp drop. In European stock markets, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by more than 7%, the French CAC40 index fell by more than 8%, and the German DAX index fell by nearly 8%;

In terms of Asian stock markets, China's Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell more than 4%, the Nikkei 225 Index closed down more than 5%, the South Korean Composite Index fell more than 4%, and the major stock indices in Singapore, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam all fell by more than 5%.

It is hard to say whether the global financial crisis has arrived, but the global economic downturn has become a foregone conclusion! The impact of the economic downturn on foreign trade will be more obvious!

Under downward pressure, trade volume will shrink and unemployment will rise. Some countries and regions will adopt more conservative trade policies, and the threat of global trade protectionism will increase! In addition, due to the economic downturn in countries around the world, the sharp drop in import demand, the sharp fluctuations in the international commodity market, and the possible depreciation of major currencies, China will be affected!

A grain of sand in the era, falling on a person's head, is a mountain! 2020 will be an extraordinary year for all foreign trade people! When the storm is coming, I hope all foreign trade people can build their own solid fortress!