It is learned that according to a news flash from Xinhua News Agency, US Republican presidential candidate Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election in the early hours of the 6th.

During the heated US presidential election, the cross-border e-commerce industry was also not very peaceful.

Amid a tense election situation and unclear future economic policies, the uncertainty pressure brought by the election has also affected the shopping enthusiasm of American consumers to a certain extent, and many consumers have reduced large non-essential consumption on the eve of the election.

Under this circumstance, sales of major e-commerce platforms have declined recently. It is reported that during this year's Amazon autumn promotion, the average order value fell by about 12% compared with last year. Among them, the sales decline of clothing, electronic products, and home and gardening supplies was the most obvious. This slowdown was mainly attributed to "deal fatigue", that is, consumers' enthusiasm for promotional activities has weakened.

Now, Trump's election is a foregone conclusion. Looking back at his previous term, a series of measures such as imposing high tariffs and strengthening trade restrictions have brought challenges to cross-border sellers in terms of cost and logistics. With his re-election, cross-border e-commerce will also face more severe waves - what profound impact will his economic policies have on the industry?

1. Tariffs are a fierce threat, and cost pressure is increasing dramatically

It is reported that during the campaign, Trump had advertised that if he was re-elected, he would impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods. At the same time, he might plan to cancel China's "most favored nation" trade treatment and impose a tariff of up to 60% on imports from China.

It is understood that during Trump's term from 2018 to 2019, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised three times, affecting a total of US$550 billion worth of Chinese goods. As a result, China's export share to the United States has dropped significantly.

Judging from the current situation, once Trump takes office and implements a more stringent tariff policy, the direct impact on Chinese sellers will be a significant increase in costs, and indirectly lead to an increase in product prices. Under this circumstance, American consumers are likely to look for cheaper alternatives, which will lead to a decline in the competitiveness of Chinese sellers' products, and then a decline in traffic and orders.

On Monday local time, the National Retail Federation warned that if Trump's new tariff plan is implemented, American consumers may lose up to $78 billion in annual spending power. Tariffs may cause prices of clothing, toys, furniture, home appliances, footwear and travel goods to soar, especially for goods whose main supplier is China.

2. Logistics is a money-eating beast, and the container shipping market may heat up

Once Trump's tariff proposal is implemented, it will not only squeeze sellers' profit margins, but will also bring about a series of logistics challenges to a large extent.

If this "unprecedented" high tariff becomes a reality, it will likely lead to a sharp increase in overseas prices, further increasing the logistics costs of cross-border sellers.

At the same time, many sellers will panic due to the soaring freight rates and stock up in advance. The direct impact is that the demand for ocean shipping will increase sharply in the short term, which will lead to a chain reaction of tight warehouses, insufficient capacity, imbalance between supply and demand, and port congestion.

3. The US dollar may depreciate, and profit margins will be squeezed

Another policy proposition closely related to the cross-border industry is to advocate the depreciation of the US dollar in terms of exchange rate. It is understood that Trump advocates intervening in the US dollar exchange rate through policy means to depreciate it, thereby boosting domestic manufacturing and reducing trade deficits.

If Trump intervenes in the exchange rate by pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the positive side is that it can stimulate consumption to a certain extent, but at the same time it is likely to cause inflation to rebound due to cutting interest rates too quickly.

From the perspective of cross-border sellers, the lower exchange rate of the US dollar also means that the profits from selling products to the United States will decline in the short term, and profit margins will be further squeezed.

4. Cross-border platforms may be affected, but TiKTok is expected to avoid being banned

From the perspective of the platform, the series of policies implemented by Trump after taking office are also likely to have different levels of impact on China's cross-border e-commerce platforms.

The U.S. Congress has proposed several times before to cancel the $800 tax-free policy. If Trump advocates a tougher trade policy after taking office and promotes the cancellation of tariff exemptions, platforms such as Temu that focus on low-value products may also be affected to some extent.

However, at the same time, TikToK has a chance to usher in a turning point in its fate. Compared with Biden, Trump's attitude towards TikTok is more moderate, and he once claimed that "TikTok will never be banned."

In April this year, the United States officially passed a ban on TikTok, requiring ByteDance to divest its control over TikTok within 270 days. After Trump's election, TikToK may avoid the fate of being banned, which is also a big benefit for sellers.

Overall, the impact of Trump's policy proposals will also radiate to the cross-border e-commerce industry to a certain extent, bringing more uncertainty. However, "the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish", cross-border sellers do not need to be too anxious. Improving the competitiveness of products and maintaining flexible market adaptability are the best responses.