With U.S. consumer demand past its peak and the winter holidays drawing to a close, the coming months will be key in determining whether the supply chain crisis caused by the pandemic will continue into 2023. 1. The supply chain crisis may continue until 2023! Aaron Terrazas of Digital Freight Network said congestion at the port has stabilized in recent weeks, but has not necessarily improved. Freight volumes have not improved significantly, with the number of boxes unloaded from ships, trucks and warehouses remaining roughly the same. But the number of ships at anchor has decreased, largely because fewer ships are coming into the port. Aaron Terrazas said the peak of consumer-based imports occurs between August and October. Historically, there is a lull between November and January, followed by the Lunar New Year, so ports are usually able to catch up on the backlog of delays. Lunar New Year and early February will be a real litmus test to see if the ports can build up cargo during the seasonal lull in January and early February and what the rest of 2022 will look like. “Then I would be more optimistic that some of the delays could be eliminated in 2022. In contrast, if we don’t see progress between now and mid-February, I think it will extend into 2023.” 2. Congestion will be transferred to the domestic transportation system! Ports have become one of many bottlenecks in the global supply chain as ships are loaded with boxes of everything from electronics to Christmas decorations. The backlog of inventory has left some stores with empty shelves during the busy holiday shopping season. The crisis at U.S. ports includes nearly 160 backed-up ships in the Los Angeles area alone. It is predicted that once the congestion at the ports is resolved, the congestion will shift to the domestic transportation system. The bottleneck has shifted. Now that people are starting to see some hope that the ports will be less congested, then the bottleneck may become the domestic transportation system in the United States , which is currently becoming more congested because of these returns. 3. Challenges brought by the omicron variant The port crisis may have eased as January approaches, but the omicron variant of the coronavirus has once again raised concerns about more economic disruption in the weeks and months ahead. The biggest concern with omicron is that even if it doesn’t lead to higher hospitalizations or mortality risks, it still has the potential to be incredibly disruptive to the labor supply chain. Given that this virus is more contagious, workers will have to stay home, temporarily isolate themselves, and care for their families. There are serious concerns at this time about warehouse and distribution center operations and the staffing risks that these facilities face if this situation continues. Aaron Terrazas said the pandemic and subsequent supply chain crisis have raised awareness of the extent to which the U.S. economy has been overly dependent on a few trade lanes and trading partners over the past 20 years. |
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