Bold prediction! Trends and opportunities of cross-border e-commerce after the Chinese New Year

Although 2023 has been here for a month, in the minds of Chinese people, only after the Spring Festival will we truly change our words and change "next year" to "this year."

Today is the eighth day of the first lunar month. Many companies choose to start work today, taking the opportunity of getting lucky. I hope that this year’s career will be smooth and prosperous!

What will happen to the cross-border industry in the new year? When and where will new opportunities appear? I would like to share my thoughts with you for your reference only. I also wish you all good luck in the new year and great fortune.

“ The U.S. e-commerce market may see a slowdown in growth

In 2022 , the GMV of the US e-commerce market exceeded US$ 1 trillion.

From the perspective of overall consumption trends, U.S. e-commerce sales have maintained a steady growth trend since 2001. However, after 2020 , its growth rate has significantly exceeded the average of previous years.

It is worth noting that the growth rate has gradually slowed down since 2021 , which is related to the continued economic downturn in the United States due to the impact of the epidemic. Compared with the previous year, the growth rate in 2022 was 9% , falling to single digits for the first time since 2009 .

It is foreseeable that the size of the US e-commerce market will continue to grow in 2023 , but the growth rate will slow down. Sellers can take the impact of its growth rate into account when making New Year plans.

Amazon will face new challenges

Amazon launched its second wave of layoffs on January 26 , with more than 3,000 employees laid off. Prior to this, Amazon had already laid off 2,300 employees in the first wave, mainly involving Amazon stores and PXT (People Experience and Technology Solutions) teams.

Amazon 's 2022 annual financial report will be released on February 2, Eastern Time ( February 3, Beijing Time). In the previously released 2022 Q3 quarterly financial report, it can be seen that net profit fell by 9% year-on-year. Now that Amazon has raised its expected number of layoffs from 10,000 to 18,000 , it is also foreseeable that the decline in net profit in the Q4 quarterly financial report may exceed that of Q3 .

The good news is that since the announcement of layoffs, Amazon's stock price has begun to rise, and shareholders and the market remain confident in Amazon's prospects.

Amazon will make a number of adjustments in 2023 , such as changing the FBA service to an auction mode, and will comprehensively reform capacity restrictions starting March 1, 2023. These rule adjustments will be new challenges for sellers.

“ Chinese sellers will have new opportunities

At the beginning of 2020 , due to the adjustment of the Amazon market, Chinese sellers lost their original advantage in the competition for the top. At the end of February , the market share of Chinese sellers among Amazon's top sellers dropped from 47% at its peak to 40% . But at the end of 2022 , Chinese sellers regained the lost share, and the proportion of top sellers rose to 45% .

It can be predicted that in 2023 , Chinese sellers will continue to exert their efforts in the competition for the top share of Amazon's market and strive for more market share.

“ More markets, more opportunities

Compared with Amazon's stagnation, Walmart's upward momentum is rapid. When Amazon's net profit declined in the third quarter of 2022 , Walmart's profit growth rate reached 16% year-on-year.

At the end of 2022 , a data research institute conducted an intention survey on Amazon sellers. The survey results showed that 99% of the sellers surveyed who only sold goods on Amazon decided to open up more sales channels in 2023 , and 53% of Amazon sellers planned to enter the Walmart e-commerce platform.

During last year's Black Friday shopping promotion in the United States, Walmart's online search volume soared 386% year-on-year, surpassing Amazon to become the first choice for American consumers looking for Black Friday discounts.

The proportion of Chinese sellers on the Walmart platform has also been steadily increasing. As of the third quarter of 2022 , the proportion of Chinese sellers among new sellers on the Walmart platform has exceeded 50% .

Not long ago, Walmart launched a program called "New Seller Support". All new US sellers participating in this activity can enjoy a referral fee discount of up to 25%, which is valid for up to 90 days, and if these people complete the new seller survey before going online, they will also enjoy a 10% service fee discount.

In addition, new sellers will enjoy a variety of services provided by Walmart, including storage, packaging, transportation, etc. New sellers participating in the platform advertising program will receive a 5% fee reduction and a $500 search advertising balance. Sellers using Walmart's logistics services will also receive a 5% fee reduction.

After tasting the sweetness continuously, Walmart will continue to exert its strength in the e-commerce sector in 2023, and there will be more bonuses and opportunities to attract high-quality sellers to settle in. If you have not yet laid out the Walmart platform, you might as well take this opportunity to enter.