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As the day of Trump's return to the White House approaches, whether he will fulfill his campaign promises is attracting more and more attention. According to CCTV News, on November 25th local time, Trump posted on his social media account that after taking office, he will impose tariffs of up to 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on all goods from China. As soon as the news came out, it was like a thunderclap in the sky, instantly causing an uproar in public opinion. Yesterday, topics such as #Trump's pretense of imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods# and #Trump announced a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods# were successively on the hot search. At this time when the global economy has not yet recovered, Trump's plan is like a "volcano" for cross-border sellers. Since there is still some time before Trump officially takes office, it is difficult to predict whether the new tariff plan will be implemented. This article only discusses the direct or indirect impact of the possibility of "implementation of the tariff plan" on cross-border e-commerce. In international trade, tariffs are a tax that must be paid on imported goods and are part of the total cost of goods. Therefore, from a direct impact point of view, for cross-border e-commerce sellers, tariff increases mean: increased commodity costs and lower profit margins. Under this circumstance, my country's cross-border sellers who rely on the US e-commerce market may face double pressure: On the one hand, the product may lose its original price competitiveness, resulting in a decline in both sales and profits; In the past few decades, backed by mature supply chains and strong manufacturing capabilities, my country's cross-border e-commerce companies have occupied an absolute price advantage in the US e-commerce competition, thereby winning a lot of market share. However, once Trump's tariff increase policy is implemented, my country's goods exported to the United States will face higher taxes and fees, increase product prices, lose price advantages, and lead to a decline in traffic and order volume. On the other hand, the cost of tariffs is borne by consumers, which may lead to a reduction in people's consumption demand. The United States is still in a state of high inflation. According to the National Retail Federation, the imposition of tariffs could cause prices of clothing, toys, furniture, home appliances, footwear and travel goods to soar, and American consumers could lose up to $78 billion in annual spending power. Judging from the goal of Trump's tariff increase, it is aimed at promoting the return of manufacturing to the United States and reducing the trade deficit. However, Chinese manufacturing occupies an important position in the global supply chain. If Trump's policy is implemented, the supply chain pressure will make it difficult for American companies to find alternative low-cost suppliers, pushing up production costs. Therefore, it is not realistic to promote the return of manufacturing to the United States and achieve decoupling between China and the United States by imposing tariffs in the short term. Therefore, for cross-border e-commerce sellers, in addition to the known impacts of Trump’s tariff policy, they also need to consider the intensity of policy enforcement. For example, the United States previously implemented a tax-free policy for small packages worth less than $800, which was widely used by Chinese cross-border sellers and platforms such as Temu and SHEIN. Some analysts believe that Trump’s tariff plan may further hinder Chinese exporters from using low-priced goods to circumvent tariffs, that is, cancel or restrict this tax-free policy. This will undoubtedly be a severe challenge for Chinese cross-border sellers who mainly export low value-added goods. Scan the QR code and reply “ tariff ” to join the group discussion It is learned that after Trump announced the tariff plan, the global exchange rate market fluctuated violently. On the morning of November 26, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the 7.25 mark, setting a new low since the end of July this year. Some experts believe that in the short term, the "Trump deal" may further ferment, leading to greater volatility of the US dollar and wide fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, after observing this fluctuation, some sellers in the industry have urgently adjusted their exchange rate strategies and settled foreign exchange in a timely manner to deal with possible risks. It is also worth mentioning that according to US media, Trump and his team mentioned during the campaign that they hope to depreciate the US dollar through exchange rate intervention in order to promote US commodity exports, ease the trade deficit problem and enhance manufacturing competitiveness. If Trump's campaign manifesto is implemented, the depreciation of the US dollar and the increase in tariffs will further reduce the profits of cross-border e-commerce. In this case, sellers may need to cope with cost pressure by raising product prices or turning to other markets. However, in the short term, Trump's policy of imposing additional tariffs and his inauguration are more likely to push up the US dollar index, allowing cross-border sellers to gain higher profit margins and catch their breath. There is a time lag between the official announcement of a new tariff plan and its implementation. Take the "tariff stick" that Trump first wielded in 2018 as an example. It took about 4 to 5 months from the announcement of the list to its implementation. During this period, the scale of US imports from China hit a record high, with an average monthly growth rate of 25.3%. The main reason for this is that the costs and consequences of high tariffs are often borne by consumers and end users in the importing country. In order to cope with the risk of price increases brought about by tariff policies, consumers usually stock up before the policy takes effect. As mentioned above, the United States still has the legacy problem of "high inflation". Once the new tariff plan is implemented, American consumers will face greater pressure from rising commodity prices and increased living costs. It has been observed that the topic of hoarding has been fermenting on multiple social media platforms in the United States recently. Related videos advocating hoarding of cosmetics, clothing, home appliances, food and other commodities have received tens of thousands of likes on social platforms. At the same time, according to CCTV Finance, American companies and consumers have recently launched a wave of stockpiling. In order to complete the orders, Chinese export companies are working overtime to cope with this surge in demand. From this point of view, potential changes in tariff policies have begun to push American consumers to stock up in advance. Under this circumstance, as one of the major importers of the United States, China is more likely to see explosive growth in goods in the short term, especially in the time difference between the release of policies and their implementation. However, for now, there are still 54 days left before Trump officially takes office (January 20, 2025). We still have to wait for his actual actions and follow-up situations to see what specific tariff policies he will introduce and what impact they will have on cross-border e-commerce. What do you think about this? Welcome to join the group or discuss in the comment area~
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