Sellers, please note! This country has declared "national bankruptcy", and customers in this country: No need to pay back the money

Sellers, please note! This country has declared "national bankruptcy", and customers in this country: No need to pay back the money

On January 10, local time, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, known as the "Trump of the Southern Hemisphere," said in front of reporters: " Brazil is bankrupt and there is nothing I can do. "


This news has made many cross-border sellers in my country panic - what does this mean? Will this affect foreign trade transactions with Brazilian customers?


01

What does "national bankruptcy" mean?


The concept of "national bankruptcy" was proposed by the International Monetary Fund in 2002. It refers to a country's external assets being less than its external liabilities, that is, a situation where its assets are less than its liabilities. Specifically, national bankruptcy means that a country's financial and fiscal revenue is insufficient to pay for the foreign exchange required for its imported goods, or its sovereign debt is greater than its GDP .

National bankruptcy only means that the national economy is in a critical situation, but it does not mean the loss of national sovereignty. After all, if a company goes bankrupt, it can be liquidated, but if a country goes bankrupt, it cannot be said to occupy other people's territory.

If a country goes bankrupt, there are still ways to alleviate it, such as borrowing from major powers or seeking assistance from the International Monetary Fund. However, if the borrowing country tries to control the bankrupt country in this way, then its country will become a vassal or puppet state, losing its economic and political independence.

In 2008, Iceland was hit hard by the financial crisis and declared national bankruptcy. However, with the strong backing of the European Union, Iceland quickly recovered and is still one of the richest countries in the world.


Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, as of the third quarter of 2020, six countries in the world have failed to repay their due debts on time and are in a state of "bankruptcy". These countries include: Argentina, Gabon, Indonesia, Madagascar, Moldova and Nauru . Among them, Argentina has declared national bankruptcy before Brazil .



However, none of these countries appear to have as good a foundation as Iceland.

In addition, the total number of countries in the world that are unable to repay their debts has reached 28. If the foreign trade exports and domestic economies of these countries cannot improve in the future, the number of countries declaring bankruptcy in the world is likely to increase further.

However, it should be noted that the Brazilian president is just as unreliable as his idol Trump, and his description of national bankruptcy is a bit exaggerated, because the financial status of the Brazilian government does not meet the definition of national bankruptcy . Of course, it is indeed difficult.

02

The impact of “national bankruptcy” on cross-border sellers


As Maizi mentioned earlier, "national bankruptcy" is actually more of a "credit bankruptcy" and does not mean that the country's companies cannot pay their debts or that the people cannot afford to buy goods.

In fact, in the case of Brazil's "national bankruptcy", what deserves our attention more is the reason for its bankruptcy, that is, whether its economic "inability to withstand" will affect trade.

The main reason for Brazil's national bankruptcy this time is that the government's ineffective anti-epidemic measures have hit the economy hard and the treasury has been exhausted. Currently, Brazil's daily new confirmed cases and deaths are currently ranked first in Latin America. The unemployment rate at the end of the year was as high as 14.2% , and the inflation rate has hit a record high for several consecutive months.


Data from the Institute of Geography and Statistics under the Brazilian Ministry of Economy show that Brazil's GDP in the first half of 2020 has returned to the level at the end of 2009. The industries with the most significant declines are industry, services and agriculture , among which industrial production levels fell by 12.3% and services fell by 9.7%, both of which were the largest declines since records began in 1996.


Another issue that cross-border sellers need to pay special attention to is the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian currency, the real .

The Brazilian real exchange rate has experienced huge fluctuations in 2020, testing record lows. Starting from January 1, 2020, the exchange rate of 1 US dollar to the real was 4.0196, fell 47.52% to 5.9297 on May 13 , and rose 11.6% to 5.2401 on December 28. The current outlook is uncertain.


When a country's currency depreciates significantly, the import costs of importers in that country will rise sharply (after all, the amount of money converted into US dollars becomes less). At this time, some extreme importers will abandon the goods at the least, or even refuse to pay the balance . These are all worthy of our cross-border sellers' extreme vigilance.

The currencies that have depreciated significantly against the US dollar in 2020 are:

1. Brazilian Real (-20.85%)

2. Russian ruble (-11.91%);

3. Peruvian Sol (-7.14%);

4. Turkish Lira (-6.94%);

5. Colombian Peso (-2.89%).


When working with importers from these countries, please be aware of exchange rate risks.

03

Why pay special attention to Brazil?


As a chain reaction of national bankruptcy, the country's economy is likely to suffer further blows, which may lead to a significant reduction in the country's exports, a large amount of capital outflow, and a selling of the domestic currency, leading to its rapid depreciation, a decline in investor confidence, a decline in international credit, and a series of other consequences.

In order to stabilize the exchange rate, the country will purchase a large amount of foreign currency, which will cause the foreign exchange reserves to drop rapidly, and then cause the country's exchange rate to fall. The final result of these developments is that when the country no longer has purchasing power, there will be a shortage of domestic materials, and supply will not meet demand, leading to a sharp inflation.

However, Brazil has a characteristic in its import and export trade that is fatal to suppliers - there is a risk of " releasing goods without documents "!

According to Brazilian customs regulations, all customs declaration procedures for goods in Brazil must be carried out through the Brazilian Foreign Trade Network System (SISCOMEX). Generally speaking, if the goods declaration form is entered in SISCOMEX, the customs declaration procedure will begin. At the same time, the importer must provide relevant documents to the customs as required. The customs will verify the contents of the goods declaration one by one. After the verification is consistent, SISCOMEX will authorize the importer to pick up the goods.

After the importer registers the import declaration documents in SISCOMEX, the customs declaration documents will be automatically submitted by the system and analyzed based on the importer's tax payment, trade behavior, nature, quantity and price of imported goods, taxation, origin of goods, export place, importer's operating capacity and economic strength. After that, the documents will be assigned to different customs clearance channels for classified sampling. That is, the goods will be classified and processed according to the following 5 different color channels:


#

Gray logo

This shipment of goods needs to go through "document inspection", "goods inspection" and "tax rate review". In this case, the original bill of lading must also be submitted.

#

Red logo

The cargo needs to undergo "document inspection" and "cargo inspection". In this case, the original bill of lading must also be submitted.

#

Yellow logo

This shipment of goods needs to undergo "document inspection" but does not require "goods inspection". "Document inspection" requires the consignee to submit the original bill of lading.

#

Watermelon logo

Goods are classified as red or green based on the results of the inspection of customs documents.

#

Green logo

The cargo on this ticket does not need to go through "document inspection" and "cargo inspection". (This means that if the consignee has the green channel customs clearance qualification, the carrier can release the cargo to the consignee without documents.)


The Brazilian customs implements the procedure of clearing customs first and picking up the goods later. The importer or freight forwarder still needs to provide the customs with the original bill of lading, original invoice, packing list and other documents during the customs clearance process. According to Order No. 1356, which came into effect on May 6, 2013, the importer (consignee) or freight forwarder needs to get the original bill of lading (MB/L) (at this time the exporter or seller has safely received the payment), go to the shipping company to exchange it for (D/O-DELIVERY ORDER) and go to the customs for customs clearance. After customs clearance, the goods can be picked up with the customs release certificate, and there is no need to show the original bill of lading. The customs only plays a role in tax supervision and does not interfere with the normal and legal delivery of property rights.


Importers can take away goods without payment of exchange in the following circumstances:

1. Collusion between shipowners and importers;

2. The declared goods are selected by the customs foreign trade system as green channel clearance.


However, according to Decree No. 1759 issued by the Brazilian Customs on November 14, 2017, the original bill of lading was added as one of the documents submitted by the consignee when requesting to collect the goods in Article 54 of the original Decree No. 680, and it was further stipulated that the customs custody agency should archive the original bill of lading submitted by the consignee for 5 years . In this way, the risk is greatly reduced.


It is recommended that the shipper clearly stipulate in the booking agreement with the freight forwarder that "the goods must be released on the basis of the original bill of lading" and indicate such mandatory provisions in the booking letter . If the freight forwarder still releases the goods without the bill of lading after accepting the entrustment, the shipper can directly sue the agent to pursue its liability for compensation.


Of course, the safest way is to collect full payment before shipping.


Currently, Sinosure has given similar suggestions for trade with Brazil:

1. Keep an eye on and keep abreast of the epidemic situation in various parts of Brazil and the current business status of buyers, and whether the industrial chain and supply chain are operating normally;

2. Adjust the cooperation mode and delivery plan, increase the proportion of advance payment and letter of credit, and be cautious and strict with credit transactions such as sales on credit;

3. Strengthen the management of accounts receivable, stop delivery in time and step up collection once overdue;

4. If you encounter any risk changes, it is recommended that you keep in touch with Sinosure in a timely manner.


04

Latin America’s “lost decade”


As a member of the BRICS, Brazil once had a bright future. But the epidemic has dragged the entire Americas into a quagmire.


Latin American countries are in the middle and low end of the global industrial chain and value chain. The industrial and financial systems of regional countries are relatively fragile and extremely vulnerable to the impact of the world economic cycle and global market fluctuations. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the shortcomings of the Latin American economy.


According to the latest report released by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal), the Latin American economy is experiencing its worst performance in 120 years, with an overall decline of 7.7% . The income of people in the region has fallen to the level of 2010 under the impact of the epidemic, which can be called another "lost decade".


The report predicts that the six countries in Latin America with the most severe decline in PIB this year are Venezuela (-30%), Peru (-12.9%), Panama (-11%), Argentina (-10.5%), Mexico and Ecuador, both at -9% . Economic experts pointed out that the economies of Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico and Ecuador had already declined before the epidemic. In 2020, Venezuela's economy will decline for the seventh consecutive year, and Argentina will experience a decline for the third consecutive year.


Friends who are exporting to America, especially Latin America this year, must pay attention to the safety of payment!


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