What will happen to the $300 billion tariffs? China and the United States will negotiate again tomorrow!

After Trump restarted the trade friction in May, he threatened us to impose tariffs on 300 billion products that were not yet subject to tariffs. This 300 billion list includes many categories of our cross-border sellers.

At the end of last month, the leaders of both sides held a meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka. The United States announced that it would not impose tariffs on the $300 billion list for the time being and would restart trade negotiations with us to reach a trade agreement that both sides could accept.

Tomorrow, the 12th round of China-US trade consultations will be held in Shanghai for two days (July 30-31). As the first consultation between the leaders of the two countries in Osaka, what will be the direction of this negotiation? Is it possible that the United States will threaten us with another 300 billion tariff list?

Before the negotiation schedule was determined, the negotiating teams of both sides had held two phone calls in July. The main content of the phone calls was to implement the consensus reached by the leaders of both sides during the Osaka meeting, which can be simply summarized as the following three points.

1. China and the United States will no longer impose tariffs on each other.

2. Restart trade negotiations and reach a dignified and equal cooperation agreement.

3. Cancel the sales restriction ban on Huawei and other Chinese companies.

Although it seems that the United States has fulfilled its promise and has not continued to impose additional tariffs on the $300 billion list, and has also talked with relevant companies to resume supply to Huawei, it is still doing some dirty tricks behind the scenes.

Just last weekend, media reported that the United States had added 198 new products, most of which involved logs and wood products, to the $200 billion list on which it had already imposed an additional 25% tariff .

Furniture sellers should pay attention to this, but I think most sellers are not affected. These HTS Codes are added to the list of 200 billion that have already been taxed, thus avoiding the consensus mentioned earlier that no new tariffs will be imposed (how can the Americans be so rogue).

However, when the US announced the $200 billion list, USTR had already stated in the announcement that "new products may be added to the list in the future."

This actually sends a not-so-optimistic signal. If these products can be added to the list of products that have already been taxed, what about the others? Picking a few products with a big impact from the 300 billion list and adding them to the 200 billion list under this name is not a disguised tax increase.

Therefore, the Trump administration has almost squandered all the national credit that the United States has accumulated. Not even a punctuation mark can be trusted in what they say or the promises they make.

There are so many small moves now, so what is Trump thinking?

In 2020, the United States will hold a general election next year, and Trump has made it clear that he will run. However, Trump's tenure has been full of bad deeds, as can be seen from the latest poll results below.

His support rate is 10 percentage points lower than that of the popular candidate Biden. At the same time, in the questionnaire survey, people are very dissatisfied with Trump's administration in various aspects, including border issues, North Korea issues, health care, and racial issues .

The only option in this form that received more satisfied votes than dissatisfied votes was the economic issue. The economic card is the only trump card Trump is using to compete in the 2020 election.

Therefore, if the trade frictions with us can be ended during his term of office and a trade agreement that satisfies both sides can be reached, it will play a very important role in Trump's re-election.

The trade negotiations tomorrow are very critical. It can be said that Trump is different from us, and he has little time left. Therefore, the US team may make certain concessions in this negotiation to try to reach an agreement as soon as possible.

Of course, we cannot rule out the possibility that they are too eager to achieve success and make a stupid move. We will see how the negotiations go tomorrow. You can also wait for my further reports. If you want to know which products are specifically included in the tariff list, please scan the QR code below to get the tariff list from me.

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