The U.S. stock market plummeted 10,000 points last week, with circuit breakers triggered four times in ten days, evaporating nearly 15 trillion U.S. dollars and making all of Trump’s efforts on the stock market since he took office go down the drain. The U.S. stock market is equivalent to our real estate market. It is a reservoir of social wealth. The assets of a large number of families are concentrated in the stock market. If the stock market plummets, the assets of every American will shrink. This is why Trump cut interest rates and released a trillion-dollar stimulus plan, just to stop the trend of the US stock market plummeting. But we all know the effect. The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate to 0, and the US stock market only rose a little bit before continuing to circuit breaker. When Americans were all pointing fingers at Trump and cursing him, on the 23rd local time in the United States, the Federal Reserve announced the start of unlimited QE (quantitative easing), which would purchase unlimited amounts of U.S. bonds and housing loan MBS according to demand. In other words, it started the unlimited money printing and flooding mode. When you hear about money release, everyone will definitely remember our own "Four Trillion Plan". In the context of the 2008 economic crisis, the central bank also started printing money. A series of money releases and stimulus plans led to skyrocketing housing prices and a decline in the purchasing power of the RMB. So this time the Fed has directly started unlimited money printing. Can such a horrible stimulus policy save the US stock market, which has been circuit-breakered many times? More importantly, will it shrink the dollars in the hands of our sellers? ◆ ◆ ◆ ◆ QE printing money means that the total amount of US dollars in the market will increase significantly, so the QE policy is generally accompanied by the depreciation of the US dollar. After the Federal Reserve announced unlimited QE on the 23rd, the US dollar fell, ending its ten-day upward trend. At the same time, due to the Fed's drastic measures, U.S. stocks surged yesterday. The Dow Jones Index soared by 2,000 points, an increase of nearly 11%, setting the largest increase since 93 years. The unlimited QE move means that the Fed's future strategy will be to completely lean towards protecting the stock market and abandoning the exchange rate. "I don't care whether the dollar rises or falls, I must protect the stock market anyway." Although this move is powerful, the key issue behind the U.S. stock market crash has not yet been resolved, and that is the epidemic in the United States. The United States recorded the largest number of newly confirmed cases in a single day since the outbreak yesterday. As of 7 a.m. on the 25th, the United States had 10,054 new confirmed cases compared to the previous day, becoming the second country to have more than 10,000 newly confirmed cases in a single day. At the same time, the World Health Organization stated that the United States may become the next center of the outbreak. The shutdown of various businesses and industries caused by the outbreak is the fundamental reason for the decline of U.S. stocks, but Trump is only thinking about using economic means to solve the problem of the decline of U.S. stocks, which is undoubtedly a temporary solution. Now, apart from a few economic stimulus plans, the United States has made almost no major moves in preventing and controlling the epidemic. Even when we used the military to build “square cabin hospitals”, they did not learn the essence. The “square cabin hospital” built in Oregon a few days ago only had simple camp beds and folding chairs. Even such simple facilities can only provide 250 beds. Comparing it with our Wuhan Sports Center Fangcang Hospital (1,000 beds) in the picture below, we can only sigh that this is the gap between a guesthouse and a star-rated hotel. When there is no hope of controlling the epidemic and investors are losing confidence in the market, no matter how much money the Federal Reserve prints, it will be in vain. The current rebound does not mean that the U.S. stock market has bottomed out. In addition, there will be quite some time in the future when the U.S. stock market will be in a state of sometimes plummeting and sometimes soaring. The impact of unlimited QE on the US dollar is still very large. Loosening money means currency depreciation, not to mention unlimited loosening. And from the historical trend, the current US dollar exchange rate is at a very high point. And I also saw a piece of gossip that Amazon is about to delay lending for three months. I looked around but couldn't find any reliable related content. The credibility of this news is not high at the moment. Just take a look at it and don't panic. However, combined with my analysis above, the US dollar exchange rate is now at its high point, and will further fluctuate and fall in the future due to unlimited QE. It is definitely right for everyone to withdraw money now if they have it. |
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