Data from the Ministry of Commerce show that in the first three quarters of 2024, my country's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports grew by 11.5%, accounting for nearly 6% of foreign trade. Driven by the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, more and more companies have explored the international market through this track in recent years. However, with the entry of new players and the dominance of established players, the competition in the cross-border e-commerce industry is becoming more and more intense. Coupled with the unpredictable market environment and the slowdown in overseas demand, my country's traditional foreign trade factories are facing unprecedented pressure and challenges. With the accelerated reshuffle of the industry, the living space of my country's traditional labor-intensive factories is being further squeezed. It is learned that recently, the administrator of Wanwei Electronics (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Shenzhen Wanwei") issued a notice of termination of labor relations: the labor relations between Shenzhen Wanwei and all employees were terminated on October 22. At the same time, the company's debts owed to employees will be listed and made public after investigation. The notice stated that the Shenzhen Intermediate People's Court had ruled in September 2024 to accept the case of Shenzhen Wanwei's bankruptcy liquidation, and issued a decision to appoint a bankruptcy administrator. It is understood that Shenzhen Wanwei was established in 2012 and has been engaged in the research and development and production of electronic products for a long time. It mainly exports electronic products such as telephones, alarm clocks, calculators, etc. It has entered multiple overseas markets such as the United States and Europe, and was once known as the "King of Telephones." People familiar with the matter revealed that the factory had tens of thousands of employees at its peak , but in the process of industrial adjustment, with the compression and closure of old product lines such as telephones and alarm clocks, the company's employee number dropped significantly, falling to 500 by 2020. In 2024, the bankruptcy administrator announced that the company had terminated its labor relationship with all employees, leaving only dozens of employees. From a factory with 10,000 employees to bankruptcy and liquidation today, the experience of Shenzhen Wanwei is truly regrettable. Especially at a time when the economic outlook is full of uncertainty, more sellers point out that the collapse of Shenzhen Wanwei reflects the transformation pains faced by traditional Chinese foreign trade companies in the ever-changing global business environment. From the perspective of the development process, the bankruptcy of Shenzhen Wanwei is mainly the result of two factors: On the one hand, with the development of the industry, traditional labor-intensive industries are being replaced by high value-added processing manufacturing and high-tech industries, but Shenzhen Wanwei has not been able to adjust its industrial structure or transfer its production chain ; On the other hand, after leaving the "telephone field", Shenzhen Wanwei failed again in the smartphone and smart home markets. Due to its insufficient product innovation and core technology capabilities , it gradually lost its market share.
However, some industry insiders have analyzed that Shenzhen Wanwei’s performance decline began in 2018, which was the beginning of the trade war provoked by Trump after taking office. Therefore, Shenzhen Wanwei’s bankruptcy is also closely related to the deterioration of the international trade environment. Now that Trump has been re-elected, many sellers have worriedly mentioned that after he takes office, companies dominated by foreign trade and cross-border e-commerce exports may be affected again to a certain extent. Back to Trump's term in office from 2018 to 2019, the United States raised tariffs on goods imported from China three times: a 25% tariff on goods worth about US$34 billion; a 25% tariff on imports worth US$16 billion; and a 10% tariff on imports worth US$200 billion... As a result, China's export share to the United States has declined significantly, but it has not affected China 's status as a major trading country: from 2018 to 2023, China's exports to the United States have dropped from 19.2% to 14.8%, but China's exports as a share of global exports have risen from 12.7% to 14.1%. Compared with the previous round of tariffs, the "tariff policy" announced by Trump during his campaign this year has a wider impact and greater force: a 10% or 20% tariff on all imported goods, a maximum tariff of 60% on all imports from China , and a gradual and complete ban on key categories of Chinese-made products such as electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals from entering the US market. It is understood that in the past period of time, thanks to China's relatively mature supply chain and strong manufacturing capacity, Chinese companies have gained price advantages in cross-border e-commerce competition and won a lot of market share. However, once the tariff increase policy is implemented, Chinese goods exported to the United States will face a tariff rate more than three times the current rate, which will seriously damage their price competitiveness. In other words, as costs rise, my country's cross-border sellers' goods exported to the United States may no longer have a price advantage, and American consumers are likely to look for cheaper alternatives, which will lead to a decline in product traffic and orders from Chinese sellers. According to the National Retail Federation, if Trump's new tariff plan is implemented, American consumers may lose up to $78 billion in annual spending power. At the same time, tariffs may cause price spikes in clothing, toys, furniture, home appliances, footwear and travel goods, especially for goods whose main supplier is China. However, some experts believe that the same tariff sanctions adopted by Trump this time are limited in their intensity, and supply chain pressure will make it difficult for US companies to find alternative low-cost suppliers, pushing up production costs. Some analysts also pointed out that if Trump's policies are implemented, the average US tariff rate may jump from the current 2.3% to 17%, while causing US labor productivity to drop by 1.4%. From this point of view, whether Trump’s new round of tariff increase policy will be implemented for a long time and what impact it will have on cross-border e-commerce still needs to wait for subsequent changes. In the face of this trade risk, some industry insiders have also made suggestions based on the experience of the previous round of tariff increases: On the one hand, relevant overseas companies can rush to export during the time difference (2025) before the tariff list takes effect; On the other hand, my country also needs to promote the transformation and upgrading of its economic structure and enhance its market competitiveness.
Under Trump's trade restrictions, my country's overseas companies must reduce their reliance on price competitiveness, and improve their independent innovation capabilities and product added value, transforming from labor-intensive, low-end manufacturing to high-tech, high-value-added manufacturing, so as to better respond to ever-changing international trade policies and maintain stable growth in performance. What do you think about this? Welcome to discuss in the comment area~
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