From the world's largest consumer market to being crushed by Double 11, why is Black Friday sales in the United States not so good?

According to the Global Times, online sales on Black Friday, the largest shopping festival in the United States, fell for the first time in recent years, while China's Double 11 promotion festival held two weeks ago continued to set new sales records. Some Chinese analysts said that the United States may lose its position as the world's largest consumer market and be replaced by China.

Black Friday and Double 11 are considered to be a concentrated reflection of the consumer markets and spending power of China and the United States. According to Adobe Analytics, which tracks 80 of the top 100 retailers in the United States, online sales on Black Friday in the United States this year totaled approximately $8.9 billion, slightly lower than $9 billion in 2020.

The decline in Chinese exports to the United States also reflects the weakness of Black Friday sales in the United States. According to reports, a manager of an e-commerce platform focusing on exports in Jiangsu Province, eastern China, said that export demand showed a weak trend on Black Friday last year, and exports in 2021 have not yet recovered to the level of 2019. The platform mainly exports domestic small household appliances, small sports equipment and other goods to the United States.

"The total volume of exported goods on Black Friday 2021 fell by 30% to 40% compared to 2019, but the total value of exports fell by only 20%," he said. This is because the prices of shipments have skyrocketed since 2019. When selling in the US market, customers either buy fewer goods or increase prices, or both, he added.

Adobe expects online sales to be between $10.2 billion and $11.3 billion this year for Cyber ​​Monday, the largest online shopping day in the U.S. Total online sales for the U.S. shopping holiday are expected to be around $20 billion, according to Adobe’s forecast.

In comparison, the online transaction volume of China's Double 11 event in 2021 was RMB 965.12 billion (US$140 billion), a year-on-year increase of 12.22%.

The main reasons why the Black Friday sales in the United States suffered a Waterloo and were crushed by Double 11 are as follows:

1. Ineffective epidemic prevention and control

The United States' poor prevention and control of the new crown epidemic is the main reason for the decline in Black Friday sales. Behind this is the turning point of US economic development and recovery, and its monetary easing policy faces severe challenges.

Economic strength, willingness to consume, and convenience are the main factors that constrain consumer demand. Analysts said that the U.S. e-commerce sector cannot guarantee smooth logistics like China, which has affected online sales. Due to the ineffective epidemic prevention and control in the United States, retailers' sales have not recovered.

2. Decline in store traffic

Statistics from Sensormatic Solutions show that on this year's Black Friday in the United States, store traffic increased by 47.5% compared to 2020, but was still 28.3% lower than the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Visits to brick-and-mortar retailers fell 90.4% from 2019 levels on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, as retailers including Target, Walmart and Best Buy temporarily closed due to the pandemic and staffing shortages, according to Sensormatic Solutions.

Recent shootings and robberies in several shopping malls in the United States have also reduced consumers' enthusiasm for visiting stores.

3. The U.S. supply chain is still under pressure.

Adobe said that as of Friday, out-of-stock listings on shopping sites were up 124% from pre-pandemic levels, with appliances, electronics, home furnishings, and home and garden supplies seeing the highest out-of-stock rates. Inventory levels at some companies have not improved as supply chains remain disrupted.

However, China's supply chain and logistics system withstood the pressure and was not interrupted by the epidemic, and was able to meet the needs of consumers at home and abroad. Even in October and November 2020, when many countries had not yet recovered from the epidemic, many Chinese manufacturers, especially small appliance manufacturers, were still busy with overseas orders.

Editor ✎ Xiao Zhu/

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