Welcome to the back-to-school season in August! What did Americans put in their shopping carts in previous years?

After Prime Day, the United States is about to usher in the August back-to-school season. Many parents have also started to prepare back-to-school supplies for their children and started shopping. In order to welcome another small sales peak after the Prime promotion, sellers need to understand the shopping trends of Americans back to school and make good inventory plans.

Which categories and products will be affected by the back-to-school season? Which categories have the biggest demand fluctuations? Pattern’s latest research reveals sales trends on Amazon US during the back-to-school season in previous years, providing a reference for sellers to select products for this year’s back-to-school season.

Pattern research found that the demand for back-to-school supplies has a clear seasonal trend. The demand for school supplies tends to surge before school starts in August each year, and another peak is at the end of winter vacation in January. But in August 2020, many students took online classes at home, and the demand for school supplies declined.

Overall Back-to-School Trends

When it comes to writing utensils, the study found that markers and mechanical pencils have seen the highest demand over the past few years, followed by pencils and erasers.

Demand for notebooks, binders, and book covers followed the same pattern overall, with a spike in demand in August followed by a small increase in demand in January. Spiral notebooks and composition notebooks had the highest overall demand, followed by D-ring binders and book covers.

The demand for lunch bags and lunch boxes is slightly different, with a higher peak in August and a flattening in January. Perhaps this is because lunch bags are more durable items that may only need to be purchased once per school year, unlike stationery and notebooks which are consumable items and need to be purchased more frequently.

It is also worth noting that demand for children's lunch bags and lunch boxes was significantly weaker in August 2020 compared to demand in August 2019 and August 2021. This may be due to the fact that many students are taking classes virtually from home and there is no need to bring lunch.

When comparing the year-to-year coefficient of variation for the back-to-school categories over the past three years, the study found that calculators and lunch bags had the largest year-to-year fluctuations in demand, likely because they only need to be purchased once per school year. Volatility for calculators, lunch bags, and stationery increased in 2021 and is likely to continue this year.

Increased volatility could impair the supply chain’s ability to match supply and demand, and if this volatility continues into 2022, we may see suppliers and retailers pass on higher costs to back-to-school shoppers.

The most in-demand back-to-school items

When comparing demand in the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2022, the study found that writing utensils, calculators and lunch bags had the highest year-on-year growth, all increasing by more than 20% year-on-year. At the start of school in August 2021, demand for calculators and lunch bags/lunch boxes surged by more than 150%, while demand for book covers increased the least year-on-year, at only 2%.

A comparison between the first half of 2021 and the first half of 2022 shows an increase in demand for writing utensils such as markers, mechanical pencils, pencils and erasers.

The demand for spiral notebooks, composition notebooks, D-type binders and book covers increased in the first half of 2022.

Overall, on Amazon US, popularity and sales of most back-to-school items increased significantly in August, followed by a smaller demand peak in January before back-to-school.

Markers and spiral notebooks had the highest demand in the stationery and notebook categories, respectively, with calculators, lunch bags, and stationery seeing the largest year-over-year growth, but with increased volatility in 2021. If this continues into 2022, it could put pressure on the supply chain and increase prices for shoppers.

In addition, students need not only back-to-school supplies, but also footwear, clothing, new sheets, and other goods. It is very important for sellers to understand the demand for back-to-school supplies in the United States.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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