US e-commerce sales exceed one trillion! The "epidemic bonus" is not a flash in the pan

It is learned that more and more analysts and experts and scholars believe that the growth in online shopping spending brought about by the COVID-19 epidemic is only a flash in the pan, and consumers' online shopping spending is returning to the level expected before the epidemic, and the increase in physical store sales is proof of this trend.

Needless to say, the highest usage of the e-commerce channel in the United States was recorded in the second quarter of 2020, when the share of e-commerce sales accounted for 16% of retail sales. Since then, this proportion has dropped to 14% in the first quarter of 2022, and in the third quarter of 2022, this share has risen again to 15%.

In addition, physical retailers have seen an increase in sales since the start of 2021. However, it may not be correct to assume that the current growth in online shopping simply reflects long-term trends before the pandemic, rather than the pandemic increasing consumers’ reliance on online channels.

PYMNTS compared U.S. Census data with e-commerce share data from 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2019, and e-commerce sales reported by the Census.

The data found that the share of U.S. e-commerce sales is currently about 1% higher than it would have been without the pandemic boost between 2020 and 2022.

While 1% may seem insignificant, it accounted for $81.6 billion in e-commerce sales over the past four quarters, or an 8% increase in e-commerce sales, which is attributed to consumers' increasing use of digital channels to make purchases between 2020 and 2022.

According to census data, total retail sales over the past four quarters were $7 trillion, of which $1 trillion came from e-commerce sales channels.

According to the latest data from MarketPlacePulse, in the past 12 months, e-commerce sales in the United States have exceeded 1 trillion US dollars. According to pre-epidemic forecasts, this indicator will appear as early as 2024, but now it has been achieved two years ahead of schedule.

U.S. e-commerce sales reached $1.02 trillion in the past 12 months, nearly doubling the size of the market in three years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. But growth in e-commerce sales is likely to fall to single digits in 2022 for the first time since 2009.

Current e-commerce sales are 25% higher than pre-pandemic forecasts. If the pandemic had not occurred and the growth rate of the previous few years, that is, 14-15%, had been maintained, today's US e-commerce sales would be $815 billion, $200 billion less than the current $1 trillion.

U.S. e-commerce sales grew 10.8% in the third quarter, returning to double-digit growth for the first time since the second quarter of 2021. E-commerce sales accelerated again, but total U.S. retail sales achieved greater growth, much of which came from offline retail.

What’s easy to overlook is that physical retail has been in a severe recession since 2010, with a large number of store closures every year, including 9,100 in 2019. Consumers may be heading to stores more now than during the pandemic, but they’re still using e-commerce more than they would have without the pandemic.

All these data mean that the above conclusion about the impact of the epidemic on the US e-commerce market is just a conclusion without data support. And the previous belief that e-commerce sales have been boosted by the COVID-19 epidemic has actually happened.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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