US e-commerce enters a period of "slow growth", and the competitive landscape of categories changes

According to the latest research, the US e-commerce market will enter a slow growth phase in 2023, and the growth of e-commerce sales in total retail sales will stagnate. At the same time, the market share and growth of various categories in the US e-commerce market will also change.

Growth in U.S. e-commerce sales as a share of total retail sales has stagnated

Driven by inflation, U.S. e-commerce sales revenue exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in 2022. But another measure, the share of e-commerce sales in total retail sales, still hovers between 14% and 15%.

In the years before the pandemic, the share of U.S. e-commerce sales in total retail sales soared to a peak of 16.4% in the second quarter of 2020, up from levels hovering around 14% before the pandemic. Before the pandemic, the share was growing at a rate of about 1% per year, and the 2020 surge brought growth forward by about three years.

In 2023, the growth of e-commerce sales share has begun to stabilize, and the growth rate is expected to be lower than before the epidemic. By the end of 2020, the proportion of retail e-commerce will be 15.1%; by the end of 2021, it will be 14.6%; by the end of 2022, this proportion will be 14.7%.

The head of retail research at JLL believes that the saturation point of the U.S. e-commerce market's share of the retail market is expected to be 20%. He expects it to take several years to approach this goal and expects it to grow to 15% in the next year and a half.

The competition landscape of the category has changed

According to the latest research from eMarketer, categories that have traditionally accounted for the largest share of the e-commerce market will give way to other categories, but will still maintain growth overall.

Clothing accessories and computer consumer electronics are the most important categories of e-commerce sales in the United States. Before the epidemic, they accounted for more than 40% of e-commerce sales in the United States. In the future, they will continue to be important drivers of e-commerce sales, but the online sales share of other categories will also increase, and the online sales share of each category will be more evenly distributed.

Starting from 2020, e-commerce sales of categories such as food and beverages, furniture and household items began to surge, breaking the previous competitive landscape dominated by clothing accessories and electronic products.

Furniture and home goods will become the second-largest category of U.S. e-commerce sales by 2024. Apparel and accessories will remain the largest category by 2027. But computers and consumer electronics (the largest category in e-commerce before 2020) will fall to third place.

Research shows that auto parts, food and beverages, and health and personal care products will become the fastest growing categories in US online sales from 2023 to 2027, especially health and personal care products. Its e-commerce sales share is expected to increase from 11.3% this year to 13.3% in 2027, the largest increase among all categories.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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