The final round of the US election! What is the trend of the cross-border industry?

If I were to ask what the biggest event of the past two days is, I would definitely say without hesitation that it is definitely the US election, and no other US election has attracted so much attention from the Chinese people. Biden and Trump have diametrically opposed strategies and political views. Biden has said that after taking office, he will cancel the punitive tariffs on China set by Trump.

Therefore, the situation of this election will largely influence the direction of our cross-border industry. Election Day is November 3rd, local time in the United States, which is tomorrow. All voters need to cast their votes on this day to determine the direction of the United States in the next four years.

So what is the current situation of the election? What is the key to watch in the election? I collected the analysis of various parties on the day before the election and will share with you the latest news.

First of all, the situation of this US election is very special. The voters who support the two candidates have never been so fiercely opposed. Just yesterday, a very bad voter confrontation occurred in Texas . Several Trump supporters drove on the highway and forced a Biden campaign propaganda vehicle to stop, almost causing a car accident.

The FBI has launched an investigation into the matter, but Trump has strongly praised the action and expressed dissatisfaction with the FBI's investigation, believing that "these people are real patriots."

This confrontation is just a microcosm of the entire election situation. The relationship between supporters of both sides is very tense, and they may fight at any time because of the election results. Therefore, many media are worried that the United States will fall into chaos after the election on the 3rd.

What's more serious is that Trump, whose supporters are even more fanatical, is lagging far behind in the current polls. After the last debate, Trump was even behind by 14% in the polls. If we only look at the results of the popular election, Trump's chances of winning are not great.

However, I want to tell you about the unique electoral system in the United States. The biggest uncertainty of this system is that the winner takes all.

In the US electoral system, the popular vote does not directly determine the president, but a number of electoral votes are generated based on the population of each state . The results of the popular vote in the state will determine which candidate the electoral votes are cast for.

For example, State A has 100,000 voters, so it is allocated 10 electoral votes. Then more than 50,000 voters in the state voted for Trump, and the remaining more than 40,000 voted for Biden. According to the winner-takes-all rule of the electoral college, Trump will get all 10 candidate votes in this state.

At this time, State B had 80,000 voters, and because of the small population, it only had 8 electoral votes. This state was more pro-Democratic, and all voters voted for Biden, and no one voted for Trump. Therefore, Biden won all the electoral votes in this state, which is 8.

If the United States only had these two states, Trump would win the election with a 10:8 electoral vote ratio and become president. Did you find something strange? Biden has more than 120,000 supporters in states A and B, while Trump has only more than 50,000, not even half of Biden's, but he won the election because of the special electoral system.

As for why Biden lost the election even though he had more supporters... Maybe this is "American democracy."

Explaining the electoral college system to everyone is also telling everyone that the poll results can be used as a reference, but they cannot determine the outcome of the general election. What really determines the outcome is the number of electoral votes of both sides.

At present, the gap in the number of electoral votes between the two sides in their own territories is not large, so the real battlefield for the two sides to canvass votes is in several states with wavering attitudes, commonly known as the six swing states, Florida (29 votes), Pennsylvania (20 votes), Michigan (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), North Carolina (15 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes).

Since everyone's base is similar, the two swing states with the most electoral votes, Florida and Pennsylvania, are the focus of this election. In the latest polls, Biden's support rate in these swing states is only 1%-3% higher than Trump's , which can be said to be a very slight advantage.

So don’t be fooled by the fact that Biden is 14% ahead in the overall polls . In fact, Biden is still far from winning. If this 1% is wiped out or even exceeded by the Trump campaign team, the situation I mentioned above will happen in this election, and Biden, who is supported by more people, will lose the election.

Then the critical time point is here. Florida, which has the most electoral votes, will close voting at 7 p.m. Eastern Time on the 3rd. Because Florida has already opened mail-in ballots in advance, most people may have mailed their ballots before the deadline. If the number of votes is very different, Florida is likely to announce the state's voting results immediately after the voting is closed. This is the first match point of this election. Everyone should remember the time point. After 8 a.m. Beijing time on the 4th, the voting results in Florida may be released.

The second match point is farther away, because Pennsylvania stipulates that due to the policy of mailing ballots, ballots mailed on election day may not arrive on the same day, so as long as the ballots are mailed to the counting center before November 6, they are valid. Therefore, the voting results in Pennsylvania may not be announced until around the 6th. Pennsylvania has as many as 20 candidate votes, and it is also a key swing state that determines the outcome of the election, so if we want to know the election results, we may have to wait until around the 6th.

Judging from the declarations of both sides, one might think that Biden's election would be slightly more beneficial to China. His remarks on China during his candidacy were relatively fair and did not carry too much hostility.

But in fact, the China strategies of both sides are nothing more than one is a real villain (Trump) and the other is a hypocrite (Biden). Even if they will not conflict with us head-on on the surface, there will definitely be many situations where they will trip us up behind the scenes.

If Biden is elected, it will definitely be good for sellers in the short term. At least the Democratic Party will not reject doing business with China, and punitive tariffs and trade wars will be eased or even canceled directly.

In fact, the impact of not determining the presidential candidate is even greater. In the past two days, due to the election, the US dollar exchange rate has been very scary, and once fell to 6.65. This is all caused by the instability brought about by the US election. It is good for our cross-border business to determine the election results earlier.

To summarize the timing, the key nodes of this election are the end of voting in Florida (November 4th, Beijing time) and the end of voting in Pennsylvania (November 7th, Beijing time) . If the vote difference is not big, we may have to wait until the end to know the election results.