This morning, cross-border sellers should all be paying attention to the US election. Our various communication groups are discussing the progress of the election and who is currently leading in the votes. If we only look at the electoral votes this morning, Biden is undoubtedly ahead. Although he only received 45% of the popular vote, he has more than 30 more electoral votes than Trump. (For the analysis of electoral votes, click here to see our previous article) However, in the six major swing states we analyzed last time, Florida (29 votes), Pennsylvania (20 votes), Michigan (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), North Carolina (15 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes), Trump was leading in almost all of them. Especially in the most critical states of Florida and Pennsylvania, which have a total of 49 electoral votes, Trump's current support rate is several points higher than Biden's in these two states. The battle in Florida is basically over, with 29 electoral votes already in Trump's pocket. Although Pennsylvania is still counting votes, Trump's lead is too large, and it is difficult for Biden to turn the tables in this situation. The two swing states of Pennsylvania and Florida influence the US election to a considerable extent. In 2016, Hillary lost because of the votes in the swing states. Since these two states voted for the Democratic Party (Obama) in the previous election, Hillary rarely focused her energy here during the campaign, while Trump frantically campaigned in these two states, which led to a reversal in the 2016 election. This time, Trump is leading not only in Pennsylvania and Florida, but also in other swing states such as Michigan and North Carolina. That is to say, Trump has won more than 70% of the votes in the six major swing states. Therefore, even if Biden is currently leading in the number of votes, once the votes in these swing states are counted, Trump will make a comeback! Biden may have really "waited in vain" this time! Precisely because the battle situation is becoming increasingly clear and Trump's chances of winning are getting higher and higher, even the US dollar exchange rate has been steadily rising and is now approaching 6.8! The swing states are the most intense battlefields. After the voting in the six major swing states, the remaining states will be the iron vote base of both sides, and the voting results will not be suspenseful. A state that is undoubtedly deep red or deep blue |
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