Exchange rates fall, shipping costs rise, where should cross-border sellers go?

Recently, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have fluctuated upward, and both the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have fallen below 6.4!

Around the 19th, the exchange rate fell to around 6.38, and then hovered between 6.39 and 6.40. Some sellers said that the withdrawals were still around 6.43 two days ago. It fell by more than 0.6% in less than a week! A large number of foreign trade and cross-border e-commerce sellers suffered heavy losses due to the exchange rate difference. If you don't withdraw the money you have saved for a few days, the US dollars you earn will depreciate a lot!

The US dollar has been falling since the outbreak of the epidemic last year. Just in the past two days, there was news that the Federal Reserve no longer wanted to flood the market and the exchange rate might rebound. However, in the end, the Federal Reserve chose to flood the market to protect the US stock market regardless of the exchange rate. As a result, the US dollar exchange rate continued to fall and almost fell below the historical low in May this year.

Last year, when the Fed was releasing money, we mentioned that the US dollar exchange rate would have a long-term downward trend, unless the Fed stopped releasing money . The continuous plunge in the past two days has fully demonstrated that man proposes, God disposes. If sellers hoard and wait for the price to rise before withdrawing when there is a warming trend, there is a high probability that they will not sell until it falls below 6.4, and the loss will be very heavy . So I suggest that since the exchange rate will continue to fall to a certain extent in the medium and long term, everyone needs to abandon the habit of hoarding a wave of balances and wait for the exchange rate to improve before withdrawing. Next, you need to develop the habit of withdrawing money in a timely manner . As long as you have money to withdraw, withdraw it directly, don't hoard!

As the exchange rate fell, the price of sea freight actually increased, further squeezing the sellers' profit margins.

Some time ago we talked about the congestion in sea freight. A large number of containers were piled up and could not be shipped out, and there was a severe shortage of truck drivers and unloading workers. A series of factors pushed up the sea freight prices that had just dropped some time ago.

The price of Matson shipping containers has once again reached a sky-high price of more than 40,000 US dollars. The "profitable industry" of international logistics has once again entered the public sector. Bulk carriers and domestic trade ships have joined the foreign trade freight camp. However, major institutions do not have high expectations for the peak season market at the end of this year, and the current forecasts are relatively pessimistic. According to the forecast of Strategic Resource Group, a neutral retail consulting company, about 20%-25% of the goods stranded on the ships will still not be put on the shelves in time before November 26. This means that this Christmas season, shortages of various products will be a normal phenomenon.

Having goods in hand is king. This is also one of the opportunities for sellers to gradually increase product prices. Sellers need to grasp the repetition and rhythm of price increases. Many sellers have experienced sales restrictions due to raising prices too high in a short period of time. Slowly raising prices will help the steady development of products.

The US dollar has plummeted, logistics prices have risen and there is congestion. At this time, the official AGL logistics appears to be more advantageous. On the one hand, the official can lock the warehouse and put the goods on the shelves for sale in advance, and can also guarantee inventory from the satellite warehouse. On the other hand, the fees can be deducted directly from the store balance during settlement, saving the seller from exchange losses caused by withdrawing money to pay, and reducing the impact of the falling exchange rate.