According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, China's total import and export value was 23.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Among them, exports were 13.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.5%; imports were 10.08 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%. From a monthly perspective, in July , China's exports were 2.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.2%; imports were 1.44 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.9%.
From the above data, we can see that although the overall development trend is stable, the export demand has been slightly weak since July. For cross-border merchants, the changes in overseas consumer demand in recent months are more intuitive.
Looking back at Prime Day held in the middle of last month, from the sluggishness on the eve of the launch to the bottoming out during the promotion, a large number of Amazon sellers have ushered in sales highlights; traffic and orders have doubled. Recently, Amazon has officially announced that it will repeat the autumn Prime Day in October and open the submission process.
The big sales have come one after another, bringing many sales opportunities to sellers. However, the consumer cooling-off period before and after the big sales this year is more intense than in previous years. It has been observed that since August, sellers on major sites have once again fallen into a trough of shrinking sales and plummeting traffic.
One seller reported that after the PD ended last month, the traffic and order volume of his products suddenly started to decline, and even the continuous increase in advertising efforts had little effect. However, the darkest moment came in August, when not only sales were halved, but orders also fell by about 60%.
"The price reduction after the July membership day was not bad, and there was no price increase in August, but it was far worse than July. There is no worst, only worse." "This year was terrible. Member Day did not meet expectations. After entering August, the keyword rankings were all lower, and the advertising could not be pulled up." "I thought August would be the beginning of the peak season, but the traffic was so bad that I couldn't even burn enough ads. It was much worse than July." "In the past two weeks, our order volume has dropped from an average of more than 260 orders per day to 130, which is a 50% drop. However, ACOS can still hold up."
It can be seen that after the end of the Member Day, the sellers seemed to be in a situation of "backlash" after experiencing a carnival of explosive orders. Both sales, profits, and traffic rankings have fluctuated greatly like a roller coaster. One seller ridiculed himself: "Did I sell all the orders for the next month due to the huge orders on Member Day in July? I didn't have any orders in August."
Comparing vertically with the previous few months, perhaps it is because the Membership Day overdrew too much demand in advance , and Europeans and Americans have become more cautious in consumption , targeting the upcoming autumn promotion, which leads to a large gap between the past and the present.
However, compared with the same period last year, the situation seems to be much worse than expected. Some sellers have only half of last year's orders, and some sellers have failed to meet their stocking expectations. Actual sales are less than 70% of 2022, resulting in a large amount of unsold inventory.
The most difficult situation is for sellers of seasonal products. In previous years, summer products were generally sold well during this period, but this year, sales are in turmoil.
A clothing seller said: "Summer clothing sales plummeted, and autumn and winter orders did not increase. CPC has doubled or tripled. Don't Americans wear clothes anymore?"
According to sellers’ feedback, the difficulty of promoting products this summer has skyrocketed. From the early stage of support to the end of the traffic period, they have basically been pushing at a loss. In the end, not only did they fail to successfully promote the links, but they also failed to sell out the inventory. Now they can only sell out at a loss. One seller said: "I haven't promoted it yet, and the big sellers have already started to sell out the inventory."
At this stage, huge inventory backlogs and selling inventory at a loss have become the norm for many sellers:
"There are still 40,000 pieces of summer inventory, which is a headache." "There are still more than 1,000 units in stock. The summer products on the US site are really hard to clear out, and even discounts outside the site won't work." "I still have 1,400 of them. I can't clear them even if I hit my bottoms. I looked at the temperatures in the east and west of the U.S. and felt like they weren't going to get any better. I immediately started rolling them up."
Overall, many sellers on the Amazon and Japan sites have been in a downturn recently, but during the Member Day, both sites achieved relatively impressive performance. However, the European site had mediocre performance in previous promotions, and its recent sales are at the bottom.
"It feels obvious that it's much worse in Europe, and the storage fee is even higher." "Europe is going to fall in August, a Waterloo." "It's really bad here in Europe. They're selling summer products, but the temperature is still 13°C in August."
On the one hand, consumer demand continued to shrink . After a brief boost from various promotional discounts during Membership Day, it suddenly hit a hard landing in August. On the other hand, demand has not increased significantly, but more people are sharing the pie. With the increasing competition in the category , increasing product traffic and rankings face considerable challenges.
A seller revealed that none of his new products this year were promoted. From being put on the shelves to being unsold, and then to being cleared out of inventory, they were finally completely eliminated by competing products.
Not only are small and medium-sized sellers stuck in a deadlock, but big sellers are also affected by market fluctuations.
Not long ago, Huakai Yibai said in an institutional survey that the current differentiation between the European and American markets is quite obvious. Europe was originally its largest market, with major countries including the UK, Germany, Italy, France and Spain accounting for more than 50%, but now the European market share has dropped to around 30%-35%.
On the other hand, the growth in the United States, Canada, and Mexico is very strong, accounting for more than 40% of Huakai Yibai's total revenue. Overall, the North American market is relatively strong, and the European market has some pressure, but the decline in the European market is gradually narrowing.
Judging from the recent economic situation in Europe, such market performance was foreshadowed.
According to CNBC, the Rhine River, the most important river transport route in Europe, is facing a drop in water levels. According to the latest data, the water level in the Rhine River section in the small town of Kaub has dropped to the lowest level this year. As a result, the entire European region is facing drought problems, which not only triggers wildfires and food security risks, but also threatens the transportation of major inland river routes in Europe, resulting in a continuous decline in freight volume.
In Europe, the entire economy relies heavily on this low-cost mode of transportation. Therefore, the series of chain reactions caused by the lowering of the Rhine River water level will have an impact on the entire European economy.
At this stage, the crisis of high inflation in Europe and the United States has not been completely resolved. Once the economic downturn continues, it will inevitably bring about a series of chain reactions such as sluggish consumer demand and sluggish cross-border transaction volume.
Now it is mid-August, the hottest season has passed, and the harvest season of autumn is coming. This may also be true for cross-border merchants. After enduring this off-season period, they will surely reap great rewards in the peak season soon.
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