Transportation is smooth and stable during the peak season, and US imports in August will reach the highest level this year

Import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to reach their highest level in nearly a year in August as retailers prepare for the winter holidays, according to the latest monthly global port tracking report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“With the port and package delivery labor negotiations that threatened the supply chain earlier in the summer now resolved, retailers are now focused on preparing for the upcoming holiday season,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president of supply chain and customs policy.

The report noted that labor and management at West Coast ports reached a tentative contract agreement in June, and that a 13-day port strike in Western Canada that affected some U.S. retailers last month ended with a tentative agreement. In addition, United Parcel Service and the Teamsters also reached a tentative contract agreement, avoiding the largest strike in the U.S. (The Canadian labor agreement was approved on Friday, but the other agreements are still in the process of being approved).

“There are always challenges on the supply side, but holiday merchandise is flowing into the U.S. and we expect to see a smooth shipping season ahead of the winter holiday shopping season.”

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that despite growth in consumer spending and U.S. employment, freight volumes this year have seen double-digit year-over-year declines.

“The dollar data for international trade shows that imports are still declining year-over-year, as are freight volumes,” he said. “The divergence between rising sales and falling freight volumes is because retailers are working to work through the inventory that has built up over the past 12 to 18 months. As that inventory is worked through, freight volumes should resume growth.”

The report showed that major U.S. ports handled 1.83 million TEUs (a 20-foot container or its equivalent) in June, down 5.2% from May and 18.7% from the same period last year. This brings container throughput in the first half of 2023 to 10.5 million TEUs, down 22% from the first half of 2022.

Ports have not yet reported July data, but Global Port Tracker forecasts that month to be 1.91 million TEU, down 12.7% year-on-year. August is expected to be 2.03 million TEU, down 10.2% from the same month last year, but the first time since October last year that the volume has exceeded 2 million TEU.

U.S. imports for the full year 2023 will reach 22.3 million TEUs, down 12.8% from last year. U.S. imports in 2022 will total 25.5 million TEUs, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEUs set in 2021.

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