Zhong Nanshan: The epidemic is expected to end in April!

A few days ago, we analyzed the resumption of work in logistics and supply of goods. Although most of the domestic logistics have started, and cross-border freight forwarding has also restored some capacity, the resumption of work in supply of goods, that is, factories, is still not optimistic. According to the epidemic situation, it will take a long time to restore production capacity.

So has the epidemic situation gotten better or worse? Yesterday afternoon, Academician Zhong Nanshan, who is on the front line of the epidemic, said in an interview that the epidemic may reach its peak at the end of this month and is expected to end in April.

A turning point in the epidemic

According to the information revealed by Zhong Nanshan in the interview, although it is currently the time for people to return to work, the number of new cases has decreased instead of increased due to the epidemic prevention measures in major cities, and the nationwide policy of extending the holidays has effectively reduced the threat of latent carriers, and there is unlikely to be a new peak in the future.

Since the 5th of this month, the number of new patients has been declining for more than a week in a row, and even during the return to work period on the 9th and 10th, it only increased slightly.

Based on the current development of the epidemic, mathematical models and local government control measures, Academician Zhong Nanshan predicts that the epidemic will reach a peak at the end of February, followed by a transition similar to a small plateau period, and finally a continuous decline. The entire new crown epidemic is expected to end in April.

Generally speaking, as long as no new cases appear and two to three incubation periods can be maintained, the epidemic can be considered officially over.

That is to say, according to the current situation, the number of new infections may be zero in early April. Without new patients, the factories can then start recruiting workers and quickly restore production capacity, and the situation of having no goods to ship will be effectively alleviated.

After the epidemic

This epidemic is definitely a major blow to our cross-border sellers. Among them, the players who distribute goods have suffered heavy losses, because they need to upload a large number of products, and the staff and site scale of the distribution companies are more and larger than those of small and beautiful refined sellers. This means that during the epidemic, the distribution sellers will have to bear more site fees and salary losses due to delays or even inability to return to work.

After the epidemic, even if the government officially announces the end of the epidemic, some impacts on cross-border sellers will still exist, such as European and American customers who do not buy or refuse to accept products after learning that they come from China.

According to our own operating conditions, there are not many bad customers who directly refuse to accept products. However, the purchasing desire of European and American consumers will indeed decrease for this reason . During the epidemic, both traffic and order volume have declined to a considerable extent.

In this regard, FBA sellers are slightly better than self-delivery sellers. Since Amazon takes care of all the logistics and customer service, European and American consumers will have a higher degree of trust in them. In addition, it is not easy to directly determine that the products shipped from overseas addresses are from China.

After this epidemic cleanup, the ones who have done better are the refined sellers with more FBA inventory. Whether it is the cost of personnel and venues, or the difficulty of remote work, these sellers have some advantages. As long as there are more goods and fewer people, the epidemic has little impact on these sellers, and they can even take advantage of the shortage of goods to improve their rankings.

Where there is crisis, there are opportunities, including the market gap left by the exit of sellers who could not hold on, the epidemic has cultivated people's online shopping habits and new consumer pain points. Each detail is the driving force for our rapid development after the epidemic. Only by surviving the current crisis can we seize the opportunities in the future!