The situation in the Red Sea will cause a surge in shipping costs, and cross-border sellers are panicking

The situation in the Red Sea will cause a surge in shipping costs, and cross-border sellers are panicking

A speck of dust from the times becomes a mountain when it falls on a person's head.

 

Since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the two sides are still in a state of tension, and its spillover risk - the Red Sea crisis has intensified. While affecting international shipping, it has also brought chain shocks to the cross-border circle.

 

 

It is learned that the Suez Canal-Red Sea route is the throat of Asia to the Mediterranean and Europe, and it is also the main channel for maritime trade between Asia and Europe. However, as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not subsided, ships passing through the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and nearby waters have been frequently attacked by Houthi armed forces . Since mid-to-late December, many global shipping giants have successively pressed the "pause button" on the Red Sea route.

 

From December 15 to 16, the four major shipping giants - Switzerland's MSC, Denmark's Maersk, France's CMA CGM and Germany's Hapag-Lloyd announced separately that they would suspend all container ship transportation through the Red Sea route.

 

Starting from December 19, shipping companies such as COSCO, Evergreen, ONE and OOCL have also announced the suspension of bookings on the Red Sea route:

  • Evergreen: All booking operations of Red Sea have been suspended. No bookings will be changed or exchanged. No new bookings will be accepted for the time being.
  • OOCL: Immediately stop accepting shipments to and from Israel.
  • ONE: All AR1/MD1/MD3 routes have been suspended, and the container management has stopped releasing containers that have been booked but not picked up.

 
 
It is understood that the shipping companies that announced the suspension of the Red Sea route are all the top ten liner companies in the world, and their total capacity exceeds 50% of the world . Currently, these shipping companies have chosen to detour around the Cape of Good Hope and avoid the Red Sea route.
 
According to the analysis of industry insiders, this detour will not only greatly increase the transportation time between Asia and Europe, but also may reduce the effective global container transportation capacity by 10%-15%. Specifically, according to the calculations of shipping experts, container ships entering Northern Europe will be delayed by about one and a half weeks, and arriving at the East Coast of the United States will be delayed by about one week.
 
Previously, due to the explosion of Amazon warehouses and frequent strikes in many places in Europe, cross-border sellers have been troubled by transportation obstructions and logistics delays. Now the Red Sea crisis that lies before them has made the already tight logistics costs even worse.
 
 
It is learned that about 30% of the cargo volume carried by the Red Sea channel is container trade, so the aggravation of the situation in the Red Sea has the most significant impact on the Asia-Europe route and container shipping freight rates. Since late December, container shipping freight rates have shown a significant upward trend.
 
On December 22, the latest Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was reported at 1254.99 points, up 14.8% from last week , of which the SCFI Europe route was $1497/TEU, up 45.5% from last week . Last week, the main contract EC2404 of the container freight index (Europe route) futures listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange had a weekly increase of 56.2%.
 
 
At the same time, in order to offset the increased costs of rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope, shipping companies such as Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have recently announced that they will levy surcharges, and these surcharges may be added to the new FAK or contract rates in January next year:


  • Maersk: A transport interruption surcharge will be imposed on 27 routes starting from the 21st; another surcharge will be added in January next year.

  • CMA CGM: Surcharges will be charged on 11 routes starting from the 21st; Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) will be levied in January next year.

  • Hapag-Lloyd: Additional freight charges will be added from the 22nd; from January next year, a charge of US$500 per box will be levied for shipping from the Far East to Europe.


In addition, industry insiders revealed that the price quote for next January shows that the freight rate from China to the UK will be as high as $10,000 per 40 feet. And according to the scale and duration of route disruptions, analysts predict that ocean freight rates may rise by 100% in the future. The difficulties in ocean logistics will inevitably cause more sellers to turn to air delivery. Once supply exceeds demand, the price of air delivery will inevitably soar.
 
It can be seen that due to the unstable situation in the Red Sea and nearby waters, the reduction in the effective global container transportation capacity has caused the shipping price to increase exponentially . It is expected that from the end of December to the beginning of next year, cross-border sellers will face large-scale logistics delays and soaring freight rates.
 
Not only that, some experts also said that if tensions in the Red Sea and nearby waters continue to escalate, it will not only severely impact the global supply chain, but may also bring the risk of re-heating global inflation.
 
 
It is learned that as tensions in the Red Sea escalate, global liquefied natural gas trade through the Suez Canal, a major waterway, has been hit hard. As of December 19, European natural gas prices, which had fallen for more than a year, have rebounded, with futures rising by 13% at one point, the largest increase in two months.
 
At the same time, it is understood that if the ship is diverted from the Red Sea route to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, the voyage will be 10,000 kilometers longer. For the shipping company, this will not only increase the fuel costs ranging from hundreds of thousands to hundreds of thousands of US dollars, but also cost more than ten days of time.
 
Therefore, some industry insiders said that if this situation continues for a long time, it will not only disrupt the global supply chain, but inflation may also rise again, causing consumption to downgrade again, and ultimately affecting the cross-border sellers.
 
At present, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not yet shown any signs of abating, so the tension in the Red Sea region seems unlikely to ease for the time being. For cross-border sellers, the trend of rising logistics costs, obstructed transportation, and further reduction in trade profits has become "force majeure".
 
In the tide of the times, the world situation is turbulent and unpredictable. We hope that when the snow melts in the spring next year, the situation in the Red Sea will ease and the global supply chain will return to normal as soon as possible.


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