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Looking back at the year 2024, countless new players have entered the cross-border track, and new and old forces from all directions have converged at the crossroads of going overseas. At the same time, the four little dragons going overseas have set off a new wave of semi-hosting, and the fierce competition between platforms has escalated, jointly pushing the industry giant ship into the deep waters full of unknowns.
The industry is changing, the tide is rising and falling, and cross-border e-commerce in 2024 is forging ahead in the transformation. From the era of wild growth and mass distribution to the new journey of intensive brand cultivation, the waves of low-price competition and brand upgrading are surging alternately, and countless sellers are guarding their existing stocks in the red ocean and grabbing the incremental growth in the blue ocean.
As an industry media deeply involved, we hereby launch the [2024 Cross-border Special Report], which summarizes the highlights of the cross-border industry in the past year from the three perspectives of platform, merchant, and category, reviews the survival status of cross-border sellers, and provides insights into overseas business opportunities in 2025.
This article is the second article in this column. In 2024, with the fierce competition between Amazon and China's four little dragons going global as the clarion call, a profound industry transformation is coming. Temu, SHEIN and other companies have launched semi-hosting services one after another, wielding low-price weapons while attempting to dig into Amazon's corners and move towards full-category platforms. Faced with the powerful "Eastern power", the traditional overlord Amazon has to lower its profile and launch the Haul low-price mall to hastily fight in the sinking market... In this melee of cross-border e-commerce business models, they all seem to have "become like each other." The territories of the giants are gradually intertwined, like key pieces in the chess game of the times. While facing the market test, it is also a deep reflection on themselves. This article will focus on the "annual game" between mainstream e-commerce platforms, explore the profound considerations behind the strategic adjustments, and unveil the prologue of going overseas in 2025 by reviewing the industry pulse of the past year. 2024 will be the year when Chinese sellers will be "snatched" by cross-border e-commerce platforms . In many cities across the country, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, hundreds of investment promotion conferences have been held in succession, with a variety of business models blooming. Multiple platforms have tried to actively attract Chinese sellers by enriching business cooperation models, increasing support, and adding preferential policies. Among them, the most powerful are the "Four Little Dragons Going Overseas" that originated in China. In order to expand the supply of merchants and promote the development of semi-hosted business, Temu has formed a nearly 1,000-person investment promotion team , using a horse racing mechanism to encourage investment promotion teams to compete for investment promotion, targeting experienced Amazon sellers . According to industry sources, since March 2024, Temu's investment promotion team has contacted at least half of Amazon's Chinese sellers, and some of these sellers have even been contacted repeatedly by multiple Temu employees at the same time. SHEIN , which focuses on the dual-track route of self-operated brand + platform model, has anchored its investment promotion target on sellers in key domestic industrial belts , and further promoted the "Xiyou Gravity" national industrial belt empowerment plan. In the month of June 2024 alone, it has carried out nearly 20 investment promotion and cooperation events in more than 20 key industrial belts in the country's strong manufacturing provinces, covering many categories such as apparel, home appliances, home decoration, toys, and pet accessories. AliExpress, which also held several investment promotion conferences in one month, upgraded its support policies for newly settled sellers, and launched exclusive traffic support, shipping subsidies and other benefits for "POP" and fully managed sellers . On the other hand, it took the lead in launching the "anti-involution" campaign, proactively intercepting and managing "refund only" and freeloaders, and reducing merchants' after-sales costs. In addition, in order to attract more sellers, TikTok Shop has further lowered the entry threshold : first, at the beginning of 2024, it announced the expansion of investment in the US cross-border self-operated model, greatly lowering the entry threshold for merchants, and then at the end of the same year, it announced that the merchants' third-party e-commerce platform operation experience would be adjusted from required to optional. From the above investment promotion actions, it can be seen that in 2024, the platforms will focus on two main investment promotion targets : one is sellers in key domestic industrial belts, and the other is Chinese sellers selling on Amazon. Marketplace Pulse research shows that as of April 2024, at least 20% of sellers on SHEIN and Temu also sell on Amazon, and the actual overlap rate may be higher. The intensive investment promotion by the four Asian Tigers is not only aimed at promoting the development of new platform models, but also reflects the rapid expansion of their overseas scale and influence in recent years. Take Temu as an example. According to Stocklytics data, from May to July 2024, Temu's global downloads exceeded 50 million times, three times that of Amazon. By August, the cumulative downloads reached an astonishing 735 million times . In this situation, with the strong rise of the four little dragons going overseas, Chinese sellers are gradually no longer viewing Amazon as the only place to go overseas. Amazon inevitably has a sense of crisis that the pie is being divided. In the 2024 investment policy, Amazon not only began to provide more support than the previous year, including more than a dozen coaching projects, multi-site sales rebates, etc., but also increased the coverage area and scale of offline investment activities, and held more seminars for sellers in China's first- and second-tier cities, and even third- and fourth-tier cities. At the latest 2025 Seller Launch Conference, Amazon officially announced that it would increase its low-price mall and open supply chain intelligent hosting services to Chinese sellers. From the news released by several Amazon official investment managers and the feedback from sellers, it can be seen that the recruitment of Amazon sellers in 2025 is in full swing, and almost every investment manager is actively looking for and inviting sellers to join. Behind all these actions, to a certain extent, it also reflects the importance of Chinese sellers to cross-border e-commerce platforms. Data from Marketplace Pulse shows that the number of Chinese sellers on the Amazon platform has continued to grow for nearly a decade. As of November 2024 , sellers from China accounted for more than 50% of the market share on the Amazon platform. If the wave of account bans in 2021 is seen as a large-scale screening test by Amazon for merchants on its platform, then the situation in which Chinese sellers are "snatched" by the platform in 2024 means that sellers have entered the "light-up reverse selection" stage for the platform. If we dig deeper into the main reason, we will find that the platforms are actually eyeing the huge supply chain resources behind Chinese sellers . Data shows that among the world's 500 major industrial products, China ranks first in the world in terms of production of more than 40% of products. The reason why the four little dragons headed by Temu can successfully go global with the full-hosting model is also because they rely on the sellers to reach the industrial belt resources behind them. In such an atmosphere, cross-border sellers have more diverse channel choices, but they have also fallen into a more intense internal competition. 2024 is the year when cross-border e-commerce will be "hard controlled" by low prices. With Temu and other four small dragons leading the way, followed by Amazon, the platforms have all gone all in on low prices and started a battle to compete for the sinking market. Take the "10 billion subsidy war" during the Black Friday promotion cycle as an example. Temu launched a series of promotional activities such as up to 90% discounts and vouchers; TikTokShop offered a maximum subsidy of 30 US dollars per item in the direct subsidy activity; SHEIN focused on "more than 300,000 popular products with price cuts and limited free delivery"; AliExpress launched a 90% discount and "10 billion subsidies"... Faced with the low-price siege by the four little dragons going overseas, Amazon has tried its best and even tried to replicate the low-price model of "Temu" and then complete its counterattack against the latter. In the previous article "Latest! Amazon's low-price mall is online, can it beat Temu?", it is mentioned that many of Amazon's operations in 2024 are centered around the word " low price" . From lowering the sales commission for low-priced clothing products, to introducing Rufus to query the historical lowest price of products, and then to launching Haul's super value shopping low-price mall, Amazon is trying to regain its price power and try to pry away the core users of "Temu" in the sinking market. It is understood that the first batch of products opened in the low-price mall covers 15 major categories including clothing, jewelry, home furnishings, beauty, electronics, accessories, kitchen supplies, etc. Most of the product styles are similar to the hot-selling categories of platforms such as Temu, and the prices are below US$10 or even US$7. Judging from the financial report data , in the first three quarters of 2024, Amazon's revenue and profits both achieved steady growth: the cumulative revenue reached US$450.167 billion, an increase of 11.20% year-on-year; the cumulative net profit was US$39.244 billion, an increase of 98.19% year-on-year, but the saturated North American market is increasingly constraining Amazon's net profit growth. Amazon's CFO pointed out in the Q2 earnings conference call that revenue growth in the North American market was slightly lower than expected, mainly because consumers chose to buy cheaper products, resulting in a decline in the average selling price (ASP). Under this circumstance, the sales data after the launch of the low-price mall shows that the previously neglected sinking market has amazing consumption power. From November 21 to December 2, 2024, Amazon's low-price mall offered a limited-time 50% discount on all items and placed discount banners in a prominent position on the app, driving a surge in mall sales. According to Marketplace Pulse data, the low-price mall reached its peak sales on Black Friday, with 2,700 best-selling items and ranked in the top 100 in multiple subcategories on Amazon. In addition, according to industry sources, the first round of Amazon Haul's low-price mall adopted an invitation system. Most of the sellers invited to join are sellers with operational experience, a high number of ASINs and sales, and a relatively large number of products that meet the specifications and price requirements of the corresponding categories. However, with the gradual opening of the second and third rounds of investment promotion, the main focus is on the three categories of fashion, home and daily necessities. Relevant sellers can actively apply to the investment manager for entry. Based on this, many sellers believe that Amazon wants to confront Temu head-on through its low-price mall. However, it is worth mentioning that in the competition process of e-commerce platforms, the competition method dominated by burning money and subsidies always exists. The price wars launched by the e-commerce platforms mentioned above during the promotion period are a direct manifestation of this phenomenon. The method of opening up the market with low prices has also been proven to be feasible by the rapid growth of the scale of the four overseas dragons in recent years. However, the sustainability of such money-burning subsidies remains to be seen. Under the premise that merchants do not have a healthy profit level and product quality is difficult to guarantee, low prices are by no means a natural way for the platform to increase sales , but rather a dead end that is like drinking poison to quench thirst. 2024 will also be a year when cross-border platforms compete for both traffic and market. While competing for existing market share in the increasingly saturated European and American markets, e-commerce giants have tacitly turned to new sites to capture cities. First is the neighboring Korean market. According to a report by GlobalData, a global market research company, the Korean e-commerce market is showing a rapid growth trend, with a market size of approximately US$118 billion in 2024 and an average annual growth rate of 7.8%. By 2028, the market size is expected to further increase to US$151.3 billion. With precise marketing strategies and cost-effective products and services, Temu has experienced explosive growth in the Korean market in 2024. According to data from data service provider IGAWorks, in the first 11 months of 2024, Temu ranked first with 18.04 million new downloads across all age groups. At the same time, its monthly active users also increased significantly, reaching 4.2619 million in November, an increase of 3.9511 million from January. Other Chinese e-commerce platforms also performed well in the Korean market. SHEIN officially announced its entry into the Korean market in June 2024. One month after its official website went online, its monthly active users reached more than 660,000, an increase of 10.3%; AliExpress increased its number of users in Korea to 9 million in April 2024 thanks to its improved delivery speed and active marketing activities... It can be said that with the strong entry of Chinese platforms such as Temu , South Korea's "small and beautiful" e-commerce market has ushered in an accelerated reshuffle. The second is the niche South African market. According to a report by TechCabal Insights, the size of the African e-commerce market will grow by 105% in five years, from US$55 billion in 2024 to US$112.73 billion in 2029. At the same time, Statista predicts that in 2025, South Africa's e-commerce penetration rate will reach 22.27%, ranking first among all African countries. SHEIN , which launched in South Africa in 2020, has expanded rapidly thanks to social marketing and first-time shopping discount subsidies. By 2024, SHEIN has become the largest retailer for online women's clothing purchases in South Africa, with a 35% market share. Temu launched its South African site in January 2024 and introduced a series of localized marketing strategies targeting the characteristics of the South African market, which quickly increased the brand's visibility and influence. According to survey data from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Temu's website traffic has soared since January 2024 , with a compound annual growth rate of 200% as of September 2024. In addition, Amazon also launched its South African site in May 2024. However, as of December of the same year, Amazon's performance in the South African market was slightly inferior to other e-commerce platforms. The reasons can be seen from the initial feedback from consumers: Amazon offers a small variety of products, with generally higher prices, and is concentrated on some international brands such as Apple and Sony. However, behind the melee between Temu, SHEIN and other four overseas dragons and Amazon in new markets, the ones who are really hit hard may be the local e-commerce platforms. The rapid expansion and low-price competition of Chinese platforms such as Temu in the Korean market are grabbing a large share of the local market. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Public Administration and Security of South Korea, as of November 2024, 79,696 online stores in South Korea have closed , exceeding the record of 78,580 in the whole year of 2023. At this rate, the number of online stores closed in South Korea in 2024 will exceed 80,000, setting a record high. In addition, Takealot, a local e-commerce platform that accounts for nearly half of South Africa's online sales, also mentioned in its semi-annual financial report on September 30, 2024 that competitive pressure from new e-commerce platforms such as Amazon and Temu has slowed the platform's growth. Finally, Southeast Asia has been regarded as a blue ocean in the industry in recent years. According to Statista data, the size of Southeast Asia's e-commerce market will reach approximately US$116.5 billion in 2024, and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.42%, reaching US$191.2 billion by 2029. In 2024, Temu opened Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei stations , and the total number of Southeast Asian markets it has entered has increased to 5. However, compared with other markets, Southeast Asian e-commerce is obviously "immune" to low prices. Before Temu, Shopee and Lazada, two veterans, had maintained their dominance for many years by relying on the extreme cost-effectiveness created by the long-term low-price subsidy strategy. Among the latecomers, it seems that only TikTok has successfully carved out a path among the heavy siege of local platforms by combining content e-commerce and shelf e-commerce . According to the "Southeast Asia E-commerce Report 2024" released by the industry, the total merchandise transaction volume of Southeast Asian e-commerce platforms will reach US$114.6 billion in 2023, among which Shopee ranks first with a market share of 48% , followed by Lazada with a share of 16.4% , and TikTok Shop and Tokopedia, which ranked third, each accounted for 14.2%. In addition to the difficulty of low-price strategies working, the strengthening of supervision on cross-border e-commerce in many Southeast Asian countries is also one of the important reasons why new cross-border e-commerce platforms have encountered setbacks in this market. The most notable one is that after being banned from registration in Indonesia, Temu and SHEIN also received suspension warnings in the Vietnamese market. On December 5, 2024, the Vietnamese Ministry of Trade stated that Temu had to suspend its business due to failure to complete relevant business registration requirements. The announcement at the top of Temu’s Vietnam website also stated: “Temu is working with the Vietnam E-Commerce and Digital Economy Bureau and the Ministry of Industry and Trade to register its e-commerce services in Vietnam.” Industry sources revealed that Temu and others have submitted applications to carry out e-commerce service activities in Vietnam, but the government has not yet given a timetable for resuming operations. It is worth mentioning that TikTok Shop was also shut down due to Indonesia’s regulations prohibiting social media platforms from conducting commodity sales and trading activities. Since then, it has been able to re-launch its Indonesian e-commerce business by holding a controlling stake in Tokopedia, a local Indonesian e-commerce platform. Compared with other markets, the trend of tightening and standardization of e-commerce in Southeast Asia is more obvious . Therefore, for e-commerce platforms, in addition to maintaining their own competitive advantages, it is increasingly important to understand and comply with local policies. In 2024, as the competition between Amazon and the four little dragons going overseas continues, the cross-border e-commerce field will enter a melee stage. The essence of the melee is to compete for transaction growth. As the market dividend fades, the original "bases" of cross-border e-commerce giants enter the stock market and inevitably seek growth from other fields, penetrate into the hinterland of competitors, and become each other's appearance. When the boundaries between platforms are broken, some people believe that this actually means that e-commerce platforms are back on the same starting line, but the platform's own comprehensive capabilities and accumulated differentiated advantages often make it more competitive in the new round of melee. In 2025, we will wait and see what new variables will emerge in the new round of "melee" and how the platform will create a larger market share.
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