Has inflation in the US finally peaked? Will the consumer market see a turnaround?

According to the Wall Street Journal, the June consumer price index is scheduled to be released on July 13, and there are signs that inflation may soon peak. In May, the U.S. inflation rate increased by 8.6% year-on-year, the highest monthly increase since December 1981.

Bloomberg and MarketWatch predict that inflation will rise to 8.8% in June, but they believe this may be the last increase in CPI.

According to Adobe's Digital Index, e-commerce sales prices fell 1% in June from May to June, marking the third consecutive month of declines. Although this is the 25th month of year-over-year e-commerce price increases, June was the third month of slower e-commerce price increases.

The data showed that in June, prices in 11 of the 18 categories Adobe tracks increased year-over-year, with groceries seeing the largest increase. Prices fell in seven categories: electronics, jewelry, books, toys, computers, sporting goods and apparel.

Categories with the largest price fluctuations in Adobe's Digital Price Index in June:

Apparel: Prices fell 0.1% year-over-year (-4.06% month-over-month). As the category with the most significant change in June, it is a significant decline compared to the 9.03% year-over-year increase in May. This is the largest year-over-year drop in the category since March 2021 , when prices fell 3.4% year-over-year. Apparel was also the largest spending category on Prime Day this year.

Electronics: Prices continued to fall by 7.28% year-on-year (-1.34% month-on-month). This was the largest year-on-year drop in the category since May 2020, when prices fell by 6.8% year-on-year.

Grocery: Prices in this category continued to soar, rising 12.44% year-over-year (+0.7% month-over-month), setting a new annual record. This follows a series of record highs: 11.7% year-over-year growth in May, 10.3% year-over-year growth in April, 9% year-over-year growth in March, and 7.6% year-over-year growth in February. Grocery remains one of the main categories that has long kept pace with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and online prices have now increased for 29 consecutive months.

Pet Supplies: Prices rose 11.35% year-over-year (up 2.01% month-over-month), continuing to set a new year-over-year all-time high for the category. Online inflation for pet products has now been observed for 26 consecutive months, as Adobe said consumers continued to bring their pets home during the pandemic, spurring demand.

Tools and home improvement: Prices rose 10.44% year-on-year (+0.60% month-on-month), the highest annual increase in the category. June was also the 19th consecutive month of year-on-year inflation in the category.

High inflation has been hammering the U.S. economy, wiping out wage gains and hurting consumer confidence, but as inflation slows and prices fall, consumer confidence will also be boosted.

So far in 2022, consumers have spent a total of $451.7 billion online, up 7.5% year-over-year. In June, consumers spent $74.1 billion online, up about 1% year-over-year. Online spending in June fell compared to April 2022 ($77.8 billion) and May ($78.8 billion). But Amazon's ongoing Prime Day will further boost online spending.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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