Insights into US retail industry trends! Here are the hot spots for consumption in the second half of the year

Rising inflation, falling consumer demand and falling retail spending are the current status of the US consumer market. When retailers and manufacturers pay attention to changes in the US retail industry, in addition to paying attention to the latest data, long-term macro data is also worth paying attention to. Quarterly data reflects the true status of the industry better than weekly or monthly sales data.

NPD's retail industry consultants explained the current real situation and development momentum of various industries in the United States. Some industries are busy replenishing stocks, while others are busy clearing stocks. This article will organize the information provided by these industry consultants to help cross-border sellers understand the most real trends in the US retail industry.

Fashion Accessories

Fashion accessories sales continued to grow in the second quarter of 2022 compared to last year, but the momentum of value growth slowed down, mainly due to a decline in average price growth. Luggage remains the strongest category in terms of sales revenue.

Luggage was also the only category to see an increase in unit sales in the second quarter as pent-up demand for travel led to increased purchases. Summer promotions are likely to keep luggage sales strong in the third quarter.

Backpack sales will slow as 2021 "spring back-to-school" sales cannibalize the category's summer back-to-school season sales.

Footwear

Footwear sales revenue declined slightly in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter. This weakness was due to slower average price growth in footwear due to increased promotional activity. The data showed that performance footwear sales revenue and unit sales declined, both of which were flat in the first quarter.

Promotional activity will pull average prices down in the third quarter of this year, although we will still see average price increases compared to last year. Summer retailer activity will drive sales in fall fashion categories, but back-to-school events will shift the focus back to sneakers.

Office Supplies

The first half of 2022 brings growth to the retail office supplies industry as consumers return to office work. Office cleaning and breakroom supplies sales are expected to increase 10% in the first quarter of 2022 and 13% in the second quarter compared to 2021. In contrast, stationery and craft supplies sales revenue will decline as demand for products for home offices or hybrid work environments decreases.

It’s worth noting that even as technology use has increased, teachers are purchasing the same amount or more office supplies.

If the momentum of workers returning to offices and students returning to classrooms does not change, demand for office supplies, coupled with rising industry prices, is expected to translate into growth in office supplies during the back-to-school season. Industry sales revenues (excluding cleaning, breakroom and storage supplies) are expected to increase 6% year-over-year in the third quarter.

Clothing Sales

After a strong performance in 2021, apparel demand is cooling. The pullback in apparel sales in the second quarter is the result of a variety of economic and social factors affecting consumers. Last year, many people replenished their casual wardrobes, causing categories such as activewear and basics to decline in 2022.

Suits, dresses and other dressy clothing are driving growth as consumers return to social events and office work. Rising prices across the board are also affecting apparel and other discretionary categories, causing consumers to think twice about buying clothing.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect strong back-to-school apparel sales as parents purchase their back-to-school wardrobes. However, the timing of these purchases may change. The increased cost of school supplies and other back-to-school items may cause consumers to delay purchasing apparel.

As much of the U.S. remains warm throughout September, consumers may still be wearing summer clothes during the first few weeks of school, which may delay buying apparel. Rising inventories and weak demand may also lead to more promotions in the third quarter, especially compared to last year.

Toy

After a first-quarter decline, toy industry sales are growing in the second quarter. The decline in the first quarter of 2022 can be directly attributed to two major events in the first quarter of 2021. First, the two stimulus checks issued last year promoted strong growth in the toy industry as many parents spent those funds on toys.

In addition, as an important node for toy sales, this year's Easter time has moved to the second quarter, and Easter toy sales have also been pushed from the first quarter to the second quarter of this year.

It is worth noting that despite slowing consumer demand, average selling prices (ASPs) continue to soar as we head into the back-to-school season, and the toy industry is likely to experience a more impactful but temporary pullback until the holiday season.

Small appliances and household items

The first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic were good for home products, but as consumers start spending more time outdoors, their demand for home products is decreasing. Coupled with the lack of stimulus money this year, industry sales in the first two quarters of this year have fallen compared with last year.

We will again see growth in home products due to more weddings, college students going back to school, and Prime Day in Q3. We will also see growth in products related to convenience and food portability as people return to offices and schools and increase group entertainment at home.

NPD also expects a shift in spending trends for home furnishings and small appliances, which should increase in the third and fourth quarters compared to the beginning of the year, in part because kitchen appliance sales are starting to normalize.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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