The US holiday season will see the lowest growth rate in history! What categories can sellers rely on to break through?

It is learned that according to Adobe's latest forecast, due to higher inflation and ongoing supply chain problems, US holiday season e-commerce sales will only increase by 2.5% to US$209.7 billion, the lowest growth rate in history.

Cyber ​​Week is the hottest

Adobe expects sales during the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber ​​Monday, known as Cyber ​​Week, to outpace the overall growth of the entire holiday season.

• E-commerce sales during Cyber ​​Week will increase 2.8% year-over-year to $4.8 billion, accounting for 16.3% of the entire holiday season.

• Cyber ​​Monday will see the biggest sales increase (5.1%), while Thanksgiving will see a 1.0% decline.

• Although the holiday season is lengthening, spurred by early holiday sales from Amazon and other retailers, consumers are still motivated to use Cyber ​​Week to buy as much as they can.

• During Cyber ​​Monday's "prime time" of 7 p.m. to 11 p.m., U.S. consumers are expected to spend $2.6 billion, or 26% of the day's total spending.

Inflation and tight budgets will dampen consumer spending throughout the holiday season

• The first is inflation. According to Adobe's forecast, online grocery prices will increase by 14% year-on-year during the holiday season, and flight prices will increase by more than 21% year-on-year, which will put pressure on holiday consumption.

• On the other hand, consumers do not have the savings or other funds to shop like they did in 2020 and 2021.

Strength Category

It is predicted that American consumers will spend the most in three categories: consumer electronics, apparel, and food and groceries, which will account for about half of total spending during the 2022 holiday season.

• Consumer electronics is the leading category for Americans’ spending as strong discounts drive prices down, with sales in the category expected to reach $49.8 billion, up 2.9% year-over-year.

• Online apparel sales will fall 6.7% as consumers flock to physical stores, but the decline is also due to heavy discounting by retailers as they clear inventory.

• As inflation drives up prices, consumers are expected to spend $13.3 billion on groceries this holiday season, up 10.5% from last year.

Consumers will see record discounts

• Electronics, TVs, toys, apparel, sporting goods, computers, furniture and appliances will all see double-digit discounts, with computers leading the way at 32 percent off.

• Most retailers start offering discounts in October and November, but Adobe expects discounts to be deeper in December as retailers scramble to attract the last wave of shoppers.

• The ultimate challenge for retailers is how to get customers to shop again after the holidays are over. How to drive repeat purchases into 2023 and leverage the customer acquisition profit growth they generated in the fourth quarter.

Adobe pointed out that although e-commerce sales in the United States during the 2022 holiday season may hit the lowest growth rate, the situation will improve in the next few years and is expected to return to double-digit growth if consumer confidence can gradually improve.

Editor ✎ Nicole/

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