U.S. imports fall to three-year low, to slowly rise from next month

According to the latest monthly global port tracking report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports in February were at one of the lowest levels since the pandemic. Import volumes are expected to begin to slowly climb starting in March.

“While there is much uncertainty in the economy, we expect imports to grow modestly in the coming months,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The increase is a positive sign, but the increase will still be well below normal levels. Retailers continue to be cautious as they work to align inventory with consumer demand.”

"Retailers are maintaining reduced inventories and will rebuild new seasonal inventories once they have a clearer picture of the expected level of consumer spending," said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.

The report showed that in January, U.S. ports handled a total of 1.81 million TEUs, down 16.5% from the same period last year and 2.6% from the previous month, but up 4.4% from the previous month, marking the first monthly increase since August last year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for January 2023. But Hackett Associates predicts that U.S. ports will handle 1.56 million TEUs in February, down 13.6% from January and 26.2% from the same period last year, with volumes falling to their lowest level since May 2020. February is the quietest month of the year for U.S. ports due to the Lunar New Year in Asia, which shuts down factories and keeps retailers quiet during the holiday and spring shopping season.

Starting in March, import volumes are expected to slowly climb until midsummer, but the growth rate is still expected to be lower than last year's level. Hackett Associates also predicts that ports will handle 1.74 million TEUs in March, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%; 1.87 million TEUs in April, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%; and 1.92 million TEUs in May, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In the first half of 2023, U.S. ports are expected to handle a total of 10.9 million TEUs, a decrease of 19.4% from the first half of 2022.

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