The deep logic behind Amazon's store closure! Are the China-US negotiations sending a positive signal?

In the past two days, senior Chinese and American officials held the latest round of meetings in Tianjin to discuss bilateral relations and issues, including the issue of crackdowns on our companies!

This was the first high-level meeting between the two countries since their last unpleasant meeting in Alaska in March. The US representative was Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, while the Chinese representative was Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng. In fact, judging from the lineups of both sides, the US has already lost the upper hand.

Sherman is a prominent figure in the US diplomatic community with extensive experience. He has witnessed the ups and downs of US-China relations over the past 20 years. He is also a tough guy in dealing with extremely difficult diplomatic opponents and problems. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, he led the diplomatic affairs between the United States, Russia, and Eastern European countries; he led the negotiations between the United States and North Korea after the North Korean nuclear crisis, etc. In addition to being the deputy secretary of state, he is the fifth most important person in the US government after the current Secretary of State Blinken.

According to common sense, the person on our side should also be a senior official at the foreign minister level, but our Foreign Minister Wang Yi only met with him briefly, and the person who actually negotiated with Sherman was Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng . The level is suddenly much lower. You should know that we have thousands of vice-ministerial officials, and there is a serious inequality in level with the US negotiators.

Not only did we disgust the United States at the negotiator level , but an unprecedented situation also occurred during the Tianjin talks. We put forward several negotiation preconditions and required the United States to agree to them before continuing the negotiations .

This is the first time since the United States established global hegemony in World War II that a major country dared to set preconditions for negotiations with the United States before negotiating with it. This is equivalent to challenging the United States face to face: If you meet these prerequisites, I will talk to you about the rest, but if you don’t, we won’t talk about anything. So although this meeting was not as straightforward and direct as the last one in Alaska, it was more insulting .

The negotiation prerequisite we put forward includes " stop suppressing Chinese companies ". Combined with the Ministry of Commerce's previous press conference mentioning the closure of cross-border e-commerce sellers, this prerequisite is aimed at the ban on Chinese companies' stores and the US sanctions on Huawei and other companies. The above is really helping us put pressure! It is definitely very exciting news!

So what is the outcome of this negotiation? Will the ban on Chinese sellers stop?

Of course, the result of the talks was that nothing was achieved.

What a joke, there is a precondition for negotiation, how can the United States, the world's largest country, accept such humiliation? The result of this meeting was that "the two sides fully exchanged views", which means that neither China nor the United States listened to the other, and each talked for several hours.

Although the United States would not accept the preconditions we proposed, we could see the United States wavering in two ways. One was that it came to negotiate despite knowing that the level of the counterparts was not equal; the other was that after we proposed the preconditions for the negotiations, it was able to discuss the entire negotiation process in a friendly manner.

It is because the current domestic inflation problem in the United States is too serious and it will be really troublesome if it is not resolved, so it has to bite the bullet and come to China for consultation.

The current inflation rate in the United States is alarming. Even during the 2008 economic crisis, it was not so high. If inflation continues to rise, it will cause a serious social crisis. The United States is now eager to stabilize inflation. There are two effective methods in the short term. One is to stop expanding the balance sheet and printing money , and the other is to start shrinking the balance sheet and reducing the money supply. But now the entire US stock market is relying on money to survive. If this is done, the US stock market will definitely plummet 90 degrees, the kind that falls through the center of the earth.

The second is to use products with lower costs and prices to ensure the price level in the market and smooth out inflation within an acceptable range. This is also the reason why there was no severe inflation when the United States flooded the market with money during the 2008 economic crisis. A large number of cheap Chinese goods lowered the prices of daily necessities in the United States . But it is different now. The high tariffs and logistics costs have caused Chinese products and raw materials to soar. No one is covering the bottom line, so the inflation in the United States this time has come so quickly and violently.

Therefore, the United States had no choice but to come to the negotiations this time. It must solve the tariff issue in a short period of time and let cheap Chinese goods help the United States solve the inflation problem. In as soon as one to two months, the punitive tariffs set by Trump may be completely revoked.

After reading the above analysis, it should be clear to everyone that what the United States needs most now is Chinese products. To hinder Chinese sellers is to hinder the United States itself . Even if there is definitely some US government behind the current wave of Amazon store closures, it is also a bargaining chip used to negotiate with us. After further consultations and an agreement between the two sides, there will definitely be fewer store closures.

In other words, we will be able to see the dawn of policy relaxation as early as September or October if there is new news and developments regarding the negotiations between the two sides.