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Taking stock of the most popular keywords in the industry in the first half of February, " tariff " is one of them. On February 1, Trump signed an executive order, announcing a 10% tariff on all imports from China and terminating the T86 customs clearance model; on February 4, the new tariff policy officially took effect, and many logistics companies announced an increase in service fees; on February 7, Trump once again announced the restoration of the T86 tax-free policy, suspected of being overwhelmed by the surge in the number of customs declaration packages... In the past half month, the US tariff policy has reversed several times, and the hearts of cross-border sellers have been repeatedly affected. Now that the T86 policy is still "uncertain", the United States has released a new "tariff" trick. It is learned that according to media reports, on February 13 local time, Trump announced that he would implement a "reciprocal tariff" policy, that is, the United States will impose tariffs on trading partners at the same rate as it imposes on American goods. According to the White House memorandum, the tariff policy will be customized based on five dimensions, including the tariff level, subsidy intensity, exchange rate situation, etc. of trading partners , in order to reduce the large and persistent trade deficit of goods in the United States. As of press time, the United States has not yet announced the effective date of the "reciprocal tariff" policy. Some analysts predict that the reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump will not be levied immediately, but may be implemented as early as April. It is understood that Trump had previously stated that "reciprocal tariffs" may involve multiple countries/regions, including countries or regions with relatively high tariff rates and large trade surpluses with the United States, which has caused a wave of heated discussions. First of all, for cross-border e-commerce sellers, the direct consequence of “reciprocal tariffs” is undoubtedly a substantial increase in costs . As one of the top 15 trading partners of the United States in 2024, the most-favored-nation trade-weighted tariff rate and simple average tariff rate of mainland China are higher than those of the United States. According to a 2024 research report by Huatai Securities analysts, the weighted tariff rate and simple average tariff rate of mainland China in 2022 will be 3% and 7.5% respectively, higher than the 2.2% and 3.3% of the United States. At the press conference announcing the "reciprocal tariff" policy, China was one of the countries "named" by Trump. He also said that the United States does not expect to issue exemptions to any American companies, including Apple, which "many products are produced in China." Prior to this, Trump had announced a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and planned to impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in March. Although the United States has temporarily restored the T86 policy recently, the industry generally believes that this is a "stopgap measure" and that the policy is likely to be canceled again in the future, raising the tariff rate on some Chinese goods. Industry insiders analyzed that if the T86 policy is canceled and the new tariff policy is added, the comprehensive tax rate of some Chinese goods may rise to 35% , further squeezing the profit margins of cross-border sellers. ▲ Scan the QR code and reply “tariff” to join the group discussion Secondly, the "reciprocal tariff" policy may further strengthen trade barriers and make the "re-export trade" strategy ineffective. According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the most-favored-nation tariff rates implemented by the top 15 trading partners of the United States are mostly higher than that of the United States (2.2%), including India (12%), Brazil (6.7%), Vietnam (5.1%) and the European Union (2.7%). If the United States implements a "reciprocal tariff", it will be significantly more difficult for goods from relevant countries to enter the US market. When the United States announced that it would impose additional tariffs on China, some cross-border sellers considered "entrepot trade" , that is, goods can be exported to the United States through a third country to reasonably avoid high tariffs. However, once the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented, this strategy will undoubtedly become ineffective immediately. However, some analysts pointed out that the United States is accustomed to viewing "tariffs" as a "negotiation tool", and there is still great uncertainty in the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy. It is currently impossible to predict how the policy will change in the future. But there is no doubt that as the "tariff war" continues, cross-border sellers and even China's cross-border e-commerce platforms will inevitably be impacted. In the short period of time since the implementation of the "T86 policy cancellation", some sellers and platforms have been affected at the first moment. It is learned that according to Second Measure data, in the five days from February 5 to 10, 2025, Temu and SHEIN's sales in the United States fell by 32% and 16% to 41% respectively . In addition to intensified market competition and seasonal factors, the industry generally believes that the decline in sales of the two platforms may be related to the adjustment of US tariff policies. According to Bloomberg, many American consumers are worried that commodity prices may rise in the future, which will lead to delays or reductions in purchasing behavior. It is worth mentioning that when Trump announced the "reciprocal tariff" plan, the National Retail Federation (NRF) once again warned that this move would expose American consumers to the impact of rising commodity prices and weaken household consumption capacity. At the same time, data from the University of Michigan also showed that the US consumer confidence index has continued to decline due to the uncertainty of the trade war. If cross-border sellers are forced to raise prices under this circumstance, their low-price competitive advantage may be weakened. Earlier, there was news in the industry that in response to the adjustment of US tariff policies, the prices of many products on Temu's front end have increased, and related sellers reported that product sales have declined significantly during this period. However, some sellers have analyzed that the reciprocal tariff policy is both a challenge and an opportunity to force the industry to upgrade. In the short term, rising costs and market fluctuations are inevitable, but the core competitiveness of China's cross-border e-commerce (such as supply chain efficiency and digital capabilities) is still difficult to replace. In the long term, through technological innovation, brand empowerment, supply chain reconstruction and diversified layout, cross-border sellers are still expected to find new growth points in the anti-globalization wave. However, for now, under the escalating terms of the US's tariffs, the risk of global trade conflicts still exists. Cross-border sellers need to pay close attention to policy developments, respond and adjust in a timely and compliant manner, and wait together for the global trade order to return to rationality and collaboration. What do you think about this? Welcome to discuss in the comment area~
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