Donald Trump's chances of winning the election increased after he was shot? If Trump is successfully elected president, what impact will it have on the cross-border industry?

At a critical moment in the 2024 US presidential election, former US President Donald Trump was shot. This shocking news quickly became the global focus. Although Trump survived, this incident undoubtedly added more uncertainty to the election. According to data from the prediction website Polymarket, after the attack , Trump's probability of winning the 2024 presidential election has increased significantly from 60% to 70%. If Trump is successfully elected president, what impact may it have on the cross-border industry?

1. Overview of Trump’s assassination

On the evening of July 13, 2024, Trump was shot at a public event, and the assassin was shot dead on the spot. Trump said on social media that despite the assassination attempt, he will continue to fight for the future of the United States. All sectors of society strongly condemned the incident, believing that it was a serious challenge to democracy and the rule of law.

However, some observers have put forward another view that the shooting may be a public relations hype carefully planned by Trump to promote his new book. After all, Trump has always been an accordion master who uses the media to hype himself.

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2. Impact of Trump’s policies on cross-border e-commerce

Let's review what Trump did during his tenure as US President from 2018 to 2020:

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The first is the tariff policy: the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States, triggering a trade war between China and the United States, which had a direct impact on cross-border e-commerce companies. After all, tariffs are directly related to sellers’ profits.

The second is to withdraw from the Universal Postal Union: Trump once tried to withdraw from the Universal Postal Union and cancel the tax-free policy for packages below US$800, but perhaps due to considerations of interests, he eventually rescinded this decision.

The third is supply chain decoupling: The supply chain decoupling policy promoted by the Trump administration has led some companies to transfer their production lines from China to other countries, such as Vietnam and India, which also poses certain challenges to the supply chain stability of cross-border e-commerce.

Fourth, consumption tax on e-commerce platforms: Although the Trump administration’s proposal to impose consumption tax on e-commerce platforms was not ultimately implemented, it has also attracted widespread attention in the industry.

Fifth, Amazon antitrust: Trump’s antitrust investigation of large e-commerce platforms such as Amazon has also had an impact on the operating model of cross-border e-commerce platforms. Trump once said: “Amazon is not in a fair competition environment, they have a very unfair competition environment …

In the context of globalization, the development of the cross-border e-commerce industry is inseparable from a stable international environment and open trade policies. In the current environment, there seems to be no better direction than going overseas. A random policy from the United States can affect millions of cross-border e-commerce sellers and indirectly affect the employment of tens of millions of people...

I hope that all cross-border e-commerce practitioners will have great sales on the upcoming Prime Day and embrace a better future.

Easter egg: Related clothes are already available on Amazon