The most comprehensive analysis of the 2022 holiday sales season! Learn which categories are worth paying attention to in one article?

The 2022 holiday season is no longer out of stock, but buyers are short on money

In some gift categories, items on retailers’ websites may be marked down by more than 20% to lure buyers, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks online sales. Computers, electronics and toys are expected to see the biggest discounts since Adobe began tracking the data in 2017.

During last year's holiday shopping season, shoppers generally bought gifts early to avoid stock-outs and shipping delays. Concerns about not being able to buy popular items led consumers to be willing to spend money in advance. In stark contrast to a year ago, retailers this year are well-stocked. But with inflation hovering near a four-year high, shoppers are tightening their belts as the cost of spending on food, housing, health care, travel and other items rises sharply, greatly limiting their purchasing power.

Which categories are worth paying attention to during the 2022 holiday sales season?

Even with deeper discounts, industry watchers expect the holiday season to remain quiet as household budgets tighten. Bain & Co., a consulting firm, predicts that sales growth last holiday season was as high as 7.5%, but after adjusting for inflation, sales growth for the 2022 peak season will be only 1% to 3%. Consulting firm Alix Partners expects sales for the 2022 holiday season to increase by 4% to 7% year-on-year, but considering the current year-on-year inflation rate of 8.2%, sales growth will still not match last year.

On top of that, some consumers don’t even want to buy products that are on sale at retailers. The category expected to see the biggest discounts during the holiday season is computers, but demand is cooling, according to Adobe. HP, Dell and Lenovo all reported declines in notebook shipments.

Promotions will be particularly noticeable in certain categories. Apparel and sports and outdoor categories saw increased discounts at Walmart and Target compared with the same period last September, according to YipitData, a research firm that collects data from consumer receipts and crawls retailers’ websites.

At Walmart, apparel is discounted about 20%, up from about 7% in the two weeks ending Sept. 17, 2021. At Target, apparel is discounted about 18%, up from about 4% in the same period last year.

On the other hand, there are almost no discounts on beauty products - which may reflect consumers' willingness to continue to spend money on self-care or small luxuries such as lipstick and lotion. Even if budgets are tight in other areas, this segment is still a hot-selling category under the "lipstick effect". YipitData found that in the two weeks ending September 17, the beauty category had the same or even slightly lower sales compared with the same period last year.

Big discounts mean shrinking profits for retailers, and under high inflation, they must increase discounts to increase consumer purchasing power. Walmart, Best Buy and Target have already reduced their profit outlooks. Walmart said that even higher-income households are reducing their spending to buy cheaper groceries, raising concerns that they may be reluctant to splurge on gifts, decorations and other holiday items.

Walmart, Target and Amazon have already brought forward their peak season sales

This summer, as shoppers lounge by the pool and embark on long-awaited vacations, sales have quietly begun to roll in. Backyard barbecue products are even more popular than they were during the peak season a year ago.

According to NPD Group, 46% of products were on sale during the second week of July. That’s up from 41% during the fourth week of November 2021, the start of the holiday shopping season. When Amazon launched Prime Day in July, Walmart opted out of its own promotion because many items were already deeply discounted at the time.

In October, Amazon held Prime Day 2.0 to make money. Target and Walmart also joined the battle for traffic, with Deal Days held a week before Prime Day 2.0 and Walmart's Rollback & More held at the same time as Prime Day 2.0 to grab traffic.

Walmart announced this week that it will launch Black Friday sales on its website every Monday in November, and offline stores will also hold sales at the same time. Customers of its subscription service Walmart+ will get discounts on hot and popular items 7 hours in advance.

Editor ✎Estella/

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