Last year, they were sold out, but now they are still unsold! Black Friday this year may be a bit difficult

Black Friday is the most important sales node of the year for US sellers. Although Black Friday is still nearly a month away, US holiday sales have already started early. With inflation and the risk of economic recession increasing, how is Black Friday this year different from previous years?

Commodity prices rise amid high inflation

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation pushed up the cost of all goods by 8.2% between September 2021 and September 2022. While consumers are eager to see more discounts during the holiday season, inflation has also taken a toll on retailers.

According to a New York University marketing professor, U.S. retailers face high fixed costs, shrinking revenues and are not expected to offer much discounting during the holiday season. Inflation is hitting some categories harder than others. For example, food prices are rising more than apparel prices.

“We’re going to see higher prices this year than we have in the past,” said Heather Dougherty, vice president of success at Lexer, a customer data platform for retailers. “Inflation will definitely push up prices for retailers, and they have to pass the costs on to the end consumer.”

In some cases, retailers may charge higher delivery fees, or keep prices the same but reduce the size or quantity. For example, a lotion bottle may contain an ounce or two less than before.

Supply chain issues may reappear, with excess inventory in some categories

Shipping backlogs and product shortages kept supply out of reach during last year's holiday shopping season, and while inflation has risen to become the biggest concern this year, supply chain risks remain. However, this year's holiday season is less likely to see shortages or even excess inventory than last year.

Delayed shipments and falling consumer demand have left some stores with excess inventory in recent months. Apparel, electronics and toys appear to be in the most plentiful supply, and retailers including Target and Walmart are offering deep discounts on those categories.

While essentials such as baby formula and some groceries may still be in short supply, the gift-giving season appears to be well-stocked. Nearly 90% of 100 retail executives surveyed in August by accounting firm KPMG expected either shortages or no shortages during the holiday season.

Several factors could affect last-minute delivery of retail inventory, including strikes by Amazon warehouse workers in several locations, a resurgence of rail strikes and possible extreme weather.

Holiday shopping gets longer and earlier

The National Retail Federation's latest consumer survey shows that 38% of consumers plan to start winter holiday shopping earlier this year. Holiday season sales have been getting earlier and earlier in the past few years, and this year is no exception.

Target launched its holiday season promotions on October 6 through its Target Deal Days event, a few days earlier than in 2021. Amazon held a members-only Prime Early Access Sale on October 11 and 12. More similar events will appear in early November.

According to analysts, it may indeed be in consumers’ best interest to at least start thinking about shopping early so that when they see something at a price that sounds great to them, they can act and avoid it selling out or not being discounted later.

Shopping early can help cash-strapped customers spread out their spending and stretch their holiday budgets. In addition, some retailers, like Target, allow shoppers to request a price refund if the item they purchased is sold at a lower price later in the season.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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