U.S. Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday sales may reach $75 billion, with sales growth slowing to 3%

It is learned that recently, S&P Global Ratings released a report saying that the growth of holiday sales in the United States this year may slow down from 4.7% last year to about 3%, lower than the average level of 5.3% in the past 10 years. This forecast is mainly based on the pressure of the continued decline in inflation on household budgets. In addition, the postponement of this year's Thanksgiving holiday has reduced shopping days by five days, which may also have an impact on sales growth.

The report pointed out that brands and sellers may rely more on promotional means to drive sales, while increasing advertising spending to compensate for the impact of declining customer traffic. In comparison, affordable goods serving middle- and high-income consumers may perform better. For example, Target and Walmart are expected to perform strongly during this holiday season due to their ability to communicate with customers and high cost-effectiveness.

However, brands in the consumer electronics and home furnishings sectors are facing the challenge of weak demand and have to stimulate sales through promotions. Data shows that retail sales grew by 16% during the 2021 holiday season, but the growth rate has slowed significantly in recent years. This year, starting in October, Amazon, Walmart, Target and others have launched holiday promotions in advance, nearly a month and a half earlier than Black Friday. It is expected that sales between Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday will reach $75 billion for the first time.

Price-sensitive consumers have driven brands to continue to promote and discount, but this may also further compress profit margins. In response to profit pressure, many brands have adopted cost savings and more conservative inventory management strategies, which are expected to keep profit margins at last year's level.

In addition, the report shows that in the past fiscal year, more than 25% of the annual operating income of 33 brands and clothing manufacturers came from holiday sales. For example, 90% of Victoria's Secret's annual operating profit is concentrated in the fourth quarter, while Macy's has 65% of its profit from the holiday season. If holiday sales do not meet expectations, these brands may face greater pressure.

Author✎ Summer/
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