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▶ Video account attention cross-border navigation It is learned that according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first four months of this year, China's total import and export value was 12.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, of which exports were 6.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3%; considering various factors, the overall growth rate has declined.
The epidemic has impacted production and manufacturing, and disrupted industrial supply chains, bringing many adverse effects to the export and foreign trade industry. Reduced demand and order loss have become common pain points in the industry. Looking at the cross-border industry, many top sellers suffered a setback in their first quarter performance. And many sellers looking back at their results over the past four months are also far from the goals set at the beginning of the year. Orders dropped sharply, and sellers' Q1 performance collectively failed to meet targets? In the blink of an eye, a quarter of 2022 has passed. I still remember that at the beginning of the year, a number of cross-border companies set ambitious sales targets for the whole year. Now it is time for the quarterly summary, but many sellers seem to have started off badly in Q1. It was previously reported in the article "'Leave if sales fail to reach 50 million'! Has the 22-year sales plan become a pie-in-the-sky competition?'" that a seller shared his company's 2022 performance appraisal form, which detailed the monthly sales indicators of each operator to decimal points. The company's annual sales target is 100 million, and each operator needs to achieve an average performance of 20 million. Recently, the seller once again shared its first quarter performance results. Overall, the actual sales of several operators did not meet the target, and the completion rate was not ideal. The seller reflected that although the ranking remained stable at the top, the total number of orders this year was indeed much lower than that of the same period last year . Even flash sales promotions were required to reach last year's daily sales order volume, and the performance of seasonal products was not as popular as expected. ▲ The picture comes from Zhiwubuyan According to sellers’ feedback, a sharp decline in orders compared to the same period last year seems to be a common phenomenon: "The number of orders is decreasing every day. I feel like I can't take it anymore." "Looking at your performance report, my anxiety has increased again. Our performance in the first four months of this year has been a downward curve..." "My store's sales have been decreasing month-on-month, with 20% less sales every month. Sales in April were half of what they were in December last year." They would rather lose money than engage in price war. Where have all the sellers’ orders gone? A senior industry insider said that nearly half of his factory's orders came from Amazon, but this year they have fallen drastically. At this time last year, customers were threatening to open their own factories because the company could not deliver the goods and could not meet their demand. However, this year, customer orders have dropped by 70%. Not only that, the price is also very low. The price of a product on Amazon last year was $59, but this year it is only around $39. According to a rough estimate, even if the promotion costs are excluded, the average loss for each product is at least $3. However, even so, these Amazon sellers are still insisting on placing orders: " After transforming into a full range of outdoor products, we can now use this product to attract traffic, which is cheaper than fake orders. By the way, we can also be price killers and kill our peers. " This case is also a microcosm of countless Amazon China sellers. Under the current economic environment, it is inevitable that consumer demand will decrease and sales will shrink in the short term. The balance between grabbing orders and protecting profits is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Sellers who do not kill are facing the adverse wind of losses and engaging in price wars that are doomed to fail. In the same period of the past two years, with skyrocketing demand and continuous orders, cross-border e-commerce seemed to have become a strong money-making industry in the eyes of many people. But where are the orders going now? Previously, the industry insider also said: "I don't know what happened, our foreign trade orders in March were reduced by half, and old customers stopped placing orders." According to sellers, some factories even closed for nine consecutive days during the May Day holiday, from April 30 to May 8, because there were no orders. ▲ The picture comes from the seller communication group Whether it is traditional foreign trade or cross-border exports, they inevitably encounter the same dilemma. Some believe that with the gradual relaxation of epidemic control abroad and the gradual recovery of productivity, orders are shifting to Southeast Asia and other regions. Recently, Vietnam has become the focus of public opinion. With its strong economic growth, its exports in the first quarter even surpassed Shenzhen. Its advantages of cheap labor and tax advantages have attracted more and more foreign capital to build factories there. Therefore, speculation that Vietnam will replace China and become the next world factory is rampant. However, Vietnam is still far behind in terms of economic strength and technological competitiveness. The demographic dividend has enabled it to undertake the transfer of some industries, but it still has a long way to go to become the next world factory. Therefore, the view that domestic orders are flowing to South Asia and other places is actually not objective. Based on feedback from multiple parties, the reduction in seller orders is mainly due to the following reasons: 1. Excessive stocking and declining demand Last year, many European and American consumers stockpiled excessive goods. However, this year, due to the repeated outbreaks of the epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the tightening of interest rates, buyers' consumer confidence and spending power have dropped significantly, and they have begun to compress demand and reduce spending. 2. Soaring costs and inventory pressure Due to the sluggish market, European and American customers are frantically cutting costs. However, domestic raw material product prices have skyrocketed, and shipping costs have also continued to soar. In addition, last year's shipping delays led to an inventory backlog, so foreign orders have tightened. 3. Impact of the epidemic, delivery delay Under the epidemic control, frequent shutdowns have caused important ports to be unable to operate normally, seriously affecting the stability of exports and greatly increasing the risk of delivery delays. The cold reception in the first quarter caused many sellers' confidence to plummet. However, according to relevant departments, as the epidemic is gradually brought under control, work and production are resumed in an orderly manner, and the industrial chain and supply chain begin to recover, cross-border exports in May may usher in a rebound. What do you want to say about this? Feel free to leave a message in the comment area~
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