High inflation has not dampened shopping enthusiasm, this year's Black Friday US retail sales will increase by 15%!

According to Mastercard Spending Pulse, Black Friday retail sales in the United States this year will increase by 15% compared to last year. With large retailers, department stores and shopping malls closed on Thanksgiving, Americans will spend heavily in advance.

Key trends to watch for this year's Black Friday

In-store shopping is prevalent: As retailers offer unprecedented deals and discounts, consumers are returning to stores. In-store sales are expected to increase by nearly 18% year-on-year during Black Friday this year. Among them, department stores will increase by nearly 25% year-on-year.

Holiday Dining: The restaurant industry is expected to see 35% year-over-year growth on Black Friday this year as consumers prioritize experiences and dining out with friends and family.

Peak Travel Season: As many Americans are planning their next trip, the airline (up 39% year-over-year) and lodging (up 32% year-over-year) industries are expected to experience double-digit growth on Black Friday this year.

"Black Friday shopping is expected to be in full swing across all channels this year," said Steve Sadove, senior chief advisor at MasterCard. "While retailers have already introduced a slew of discounts this season, consumers are still waiting for even bigger deals to come."

U.S. retail sales in October

Data from Mastercard SpendingPulse shows that U.S. retail sales increased 9.5% year-over-year in October and increased 23.6% compared to October 2019. Sales increased in all categories except home and furniture and luxury goods and jewelry (see chart below).

“Labor market strength continued to support consumer spending in October,” said Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at Mastercard Economics. “This, combined with abundant online promotions, helped consumers bring forward their holiday shopping, further boosting sales.”

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